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LAFAYETTE — Economist Loren Scott says Louisiana's economic picture may be getting brighter.

Scott made his 14th annual Louisiana Economic Output report to One Acadiana on Thursday in Lafayette.

“Louisiana is finally emerging from a 20-month recession due to a dramatic downturn in the state’s oil patch,” the report states.

Specifically addressing the parishes near Lafayette, which like St. Mary are dependent on energy industry jobs, Scott said higher oil prices are going to drive economic growth in Lafayette, Acadia, Iberia, St. Martin and Vermilion parishes, the report states.

“The good news is the recovery will be bolstered by a slightly faster growing national economy, low inflation, and only a slight increase in interest rates,” the report states.

“I really, unfortunately, don’t see you getting back to where your were when the price was a $100. When the price is a $100 you are like a gold mining town ...” he said.

“While the bloodletting has slowed in the oil patch, oil prices in the $52-$58 a barrel range means exploration in the Gulf of Mexico will only recover modestly at best. That means the oil patch will remain sluggish over 2018-19,” the report states.

The Lafayette area derives 6.8 percent of its jobs directly from the exploration industry, which compares to the state average of 1.6 percent, the report states.

The Lafayette area will lose about 800 jobs in 2018, but should experience a recovery in 2019 with the addition of 1,600 jobs.

“Solid performance in Lafayette’s Big Four — Stuller Settings, Acadian Ambulance, the Schumacher Group, and LHC — will help lessen the bite from a still recessionary oil and gas extraction sector. Over a $60 million boost to the state road lettings budget in this region will help as well,” the report states.

Efficiencies and price pressure on suppliers is helping the oil and gas industry to lower its break even point, he said.

The Gulf Coast economy offers a range of contrast.

Lake Charles has $126 billion in industrial announcements bolstering its ranking as one of the fastest growing metropolitan areas in the nation.

“As you start to work your way across, you start getting into sectors of the economy that are heavily tied to offshore. If your are heavily tied to offshore Gulf of Mexico, the Gulf of Mexico is not doing the same thing as the shale play,” he said.

Scott noted that boat-builder Metal Shark shifted its production to contracts for Navy vessels.

The Trump Administration is bringing a relaxation of what Scott calls a “tsunami” of regulations under President Obama. There is also a forecast of tax cuts under Trump. Both, he said, would be mean a cost reductions to the industry, which should mean more jobs.

“We should quit thinking that two and two and half percent is normal. That is not normal. That is the result of bad policies. Normal is 3 percent and 3.5 percent,” he said of the nation’s economic growth.

As for the Lafayette area, “The decline from $105.71 a barrel in August 2014 to a low of $27.76 in January, 2016 has had its usual effect on the very oil-dependent Lafayette MSA. Even with oil prices recovering into the $50 a barrel range, employment losses in the Lafayette MSA continue to mount.

“Among the recent causalities was the closure of Chevron’s Shelf Office (though the firm is maintaining an Emergency Response Center in Lafayette). Baker Hughes closed a cement and pumping division in Crowley that employed 200 people at one time. Blue Sky Innovations — a firm providing support to helicopters servicing offshore work — shed 58 jobs. At the Port of Iberia, Dynamic Industries completed the module for Shell’s Appomattox Platform and dropped its workforce from 500 to 350.”

Scott estimates the region will have lose 23,500 jobs from 2015 to 2017 — a 10.6 percent decline.

In rural Louisiana, which includes St. Landry and Evangeline parishes, Scott forecasts stability. The are among the 29 parishes having an agricultural base.

Rural parishes should add 2,300 jobs for a 1 percent job growth in 2018 and another 2,200 jobs in 2019, also a 1 percent job growth, the report states.

Bright spots in the rural economic outlook include:
— Metal Shark Boats, a company that manufactures vessels out of aluminum. Starting with only 40 employees and one facility in 2014, Metal Sharks now has about 160 employees and three facilities. The firm is adding a finishing plant for painting and blasting, a new administration building, and a large vessel fabrication facility. Metal Sharks was selected by the Navy to build Near Coastal Patrol Vessels for U.S. partner nations. In June, the company landed a $54 million contract for 13 welded aluminum cutters, and recently the company completed six 88-foot high-speed passenger vessels for the New York Ferry Service. It delivered the first six of 18 45-foot patrol boats to the Vietnam Coast Guard.

— Large sums of money are being spent to build pipelines mainly in rural areas. Kinder Morgan is spending $170 million to build a pipeline called the “Southwest Louisiana Supply Project”. Tennessee Gas Pipeline will employ 300 people to build a natural gas compressor station in Franklin Parish and extend its compressors and pipelines in Madison Parish. Total project cost is $170 million.

— The Hazelwood Energy Hub project near Port Barre is at the permitting stage. A $400 million project to store and blend 10 types of oil held in storage tanks and salt domes, this facility will employ 123 people at $63,500 annually.

The Rev. Murphy Glover Sr., 83, a native of Napoleonville and resident of Siracusa, died Tuesday, Oct. 10, 2017, at Patterson Healthcare Center.

Visitation will be Tuesday at One Faith Fellowship Christian Center in Patterson from 9 a.m. until services at 11 a.m. Burial will follow in Morgan City Cemetery.

He is survived by two sons, Matthew Glover of Morgan City and Murphy Glover Jr. of Las Vegas; two daughters, Shelia Turner and Faye Hartman, both of Morgan City; one sister, Theresa Cochran of Baton Rouge; 13 grandchildren; 23 great-grandchildren; and a host of nieces, nephews and other relatives.

He was preceded in death by his wife, parents, four brothers and four sisters.

BARBECUE
Second Missionary Baptist Church, 401 Fifth St., Morgan City, barbecue dinner 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 14. Menu: barbecued pork chop or chicken, baked pork and beans, potato salad, dessert and soda. This is in appreciation of church musicians Travis Short and Harlie Francis. Donation $7. Will deliver. Call 985-714-6250.

PHS CLASS OF ’67
Holding a 50-year reunion luncheon at 1 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 28, at The Atchafalaya at Idlewild. RSVP via call or text, 985-518-5332.

BAKED CHICKEN
Bayou Vista Community Fellowship, 1523 Anthony St., Bayou Vista, Youth Department fundraiser noon-1:30 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 15. Menu: baked chicken, mashed potatoes, smothered corn, bread and dessert. Cost $6. Take-out only. For info call 985-253-1602.

Some people raised eyebrows back in the 1960s, when Curtis Joubert began promoting the idea that south Louisiana had something special to offer and that people from other places would spend good money to experience it.

It turns out that he was on to something back then that business leaders and economic developers are finally beginning to understand, and embrace.

Joubert has been rightly acclaimed as one of the first government leaders in the area to recognize both the historic and economic worth of preserving and building upon the traditions of his community and the surrounding area. He figured out that the unique culture — actually cultures, plural — of south Louisiana is valuable not only because it is such a part of who and what we are, but as something important in the economy, perhaps especially in smaller communities.

As a legislator in the 1960s he was a staunch advocate for the preservation of the French language and culture. As mayor in the 1980s he helped to establish the Eunice Mardi Gras celebration that now draws thousands of people to the community each year, coined the nickname
“Prairie Cajun Capital” for Eunice, and led tough fights for the creation of the Prairie Acadian Culture Center and for renovation of the Liberty Theatre next door to it.

His concept had no name when he first began talking about it. Today he would be promoting the “cultural economy,” which, according to one recent study, generates more jobs in Louisiana than the tourist industry and creates nearly three times more jobs each year than the overall statewide rate.

That study, done for the Louisiana Office of Culture, Recreation, and Tourism, defines Louisiana’s cultural economy as:” the people, enterprises, and communities that transform cultural skills, knowledge, and ideas into economically productive goods, services, and places,” and notes that “in addition to the core cultural segments of design, entertainment, literary arts and humanities, and visual arts, Louisiana’s unique culture is reflected by the inclusion of culinary arts and preservation.”

Translating that from bureaucrat-speak: We make music, food, and works of art and crafts like nobody else does. We speak with accents not heard elsewhere. Best of all, we just naturally make good fun and good experiences for ourselves that other folks love to enjoy with us.

Economic developers such as Bill Rodier of St. Landry Parish note that the cultural economy is largely made up of small businesses and that it enjoys a high degree of self-employment. The state study suggests that this may point to new ways to create and maintain jobs in other parts of the economy.

“There is much discussion of the form that cultural work takes,” according to the study. It is “project-based, independent, [and] highly fluid,” and depends on “networks of personal and professional relationships [and may be] a harbinger of future work modes.”

“I feel strongly that even though it is not a part of traditional economic development, the cultural economy is an important asset,” Rodier says. “Our unique culture is a natural resource that, with proper stewardship, will always be with us.”

The statewide study agrees: “Authentic local culture cannot be outsourced. ... It is [the one area] most likely to create jobs that will not eventually be lost to lower cost locations. Furthermore, because its production is so localized, it has a ripple effect on adjacent industries like tourism that benefit from people coming to Louisiana to experience the product firsthand.”

Key words in those last two paragraphs are “proper stewardship” and “authentic.” We have from time to time parodied ourselves in the past, but we’re coming to realize that we don’t need to do that. To paraphrase the movie line, if we just be ourselves, they will come, and come back, and come back again.

A collection of Jim Bradshaw’s columns, Cajuns and Other Characters, is now available from Pelican Publishing. You can contact him at jimbradshaw4321@gmail.com or P.O. Box 1121, Washington LA 70589.