RSS Feed

FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

TROPICAL STORM MARCO

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

Marco has taken on distinctly sheared appearance. Reports from an
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane, microwave imagery, and
radar imagery from Cuba all indicate that deep convection is limited
to the east side of the tropical storm and that it no longer has a
nearly closed eyewall. The degradation of Marco's structure appears
to be primarily due to strong upper-level southwesterly flow.
Despite the shear, the plane still measured SFMR winds near 55 kt
and the intensity is held at that value.

Marco is a small tropical storm and will be susceptible to rapid
changes in structure and intensity until it reaches the northern
Gulf Coast. Such systems are often not very resilient in a
high-shear environment, however even a brief relaxation of the shear
could result in quick strengthening. It would not be surprising if
Marco's intensity evolves in step-wise fashion consisting of periods
of arrested development followed by fast strengthening if/when the
shear relaxes. While the statistical models still show Marco
becoming a hurricane within 24 h, the run-to-run consistency of the
dynamical guidance remains poor. The latest HWRF, HMON and GFS
forecasts show Marco weakening as it approaches the northern Gulf
Coast, and this remains a distinct possibility if the shear remains
consistently high. The NHC intensity forecast has not been changed
substantially, in large part due to the low confidence of the
forecast, and is consequently above all of the guidance at 36 and 48
h when Marco is forecast to be near the northern Gulf Coast.
Additional adjustments to the forecast are likely on Sunday.

In sharp contrast to earlier today, no large changes were made to
the track forecast, though that should not be interpreted as an
increase in forecast confidence. Marco is forecast to move
north-northwestward and approach the northern Gulf Coast on Monday.
As it moves inland and weakens, a turn toward the west at a slower
forward speed is anticipated. This turn could occur before or after
Marco moves inland, and will be tied in part to exactly when Marco
begins to weaken since a stronger, deeper storm should continue to
feel the affects of the upper-level southwesterly flow and move
farther north while a weaker system will be steered westward by a
low- to mid-level ridge extending over the southeastern US. The NHC
forecast is nearly on top of the multi-model consensus, but the
spread in the guidance is still higher than normal.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of extreme
western Cuba for a few more hours. Heavy rainfall is also expected
overnight in the eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana
Roo and Yucatan, and across far western Cuba, which could result in
flash flooding.

2. Marco is expected to be at or near hurricane strength when it
approaches the central Gulf Coast as a hurricane on Monday.
Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall are possible along portions of the Gulf Coast beginning on
Monday, and Hurricane and Storm Surge watches have been issued.
Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local
government officials.

3. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge,
rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the
middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period of
hazardous weather for areas that may also be affected by Marco.
Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and
updates to the forecast during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 22.8N 86.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 24.3N 87.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 26.3N 87.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 28.3N 88.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 29.6N 90.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 25/1200Z 30.5N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 26/0000Z 30.9N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

TROPICAL STORM LAURA

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

Laura is now located near the eastern portion of the Dominican
Republic, and it is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms over much of Hispaniola and adjacent areas. The NOAA
Hurricane Hunters have been flying in the tropical storm this
evening and have found winds to support maintaining the initial
intensity of 45 kt. Dropsonde data from the aircraft suggests that
the pressure has fallen a little to 1003 mb, and that the center is
still quite elongated.

Laura is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt. The track forecast
reasoning is generally unchanged from earlier. A subtropical high
pressure system is expected to build westward during the next few
days, which should continue to steer Laura generally
west-northwestward at a fairly quick pace. This track should take
the storm across Hispaniola tonight and early Sunday and then across
Cuba late Sunday and Monday. Laura is then expected to emerge over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico, where it will likely turn northwestward
and slow down some as it reaches the western side of the ridge. The
models are in fair agreement that Laura will generally follow a
similar path to Marco when it nears the northern Gulf coast in 3 to
4 days. There has been little change in the guidance this cycle,
and the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one.
This forecast is near the typically reliable TVCA and HCCA
consensus aids.

Since the tropical storm is expected to track across the
mountainous islands of Hispaniola and Cuba during the next 36
to 48 hours, little change in intensity seems like a good bet during
that time period. However, after the storm pulls away from the
islands and moves over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters while being
in low wind shear and high moisture conditions, strengthening seems
very likely. Most of the better-performing intensity models show
Laura making landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast as a
hurricane in about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly
higher than the previous one, and it lies roughly near the middle
of the guidance suite.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across
portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico for a few more
hours. Tropical storm conditions are also expected across portions
of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the
southeastern Bahamas, and central and eastern Cuba through Sunday.
Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas and could cause
mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday, with
widespread river flooding possible in Puerto Rico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of
central and western Cuba, the central Bahamas and Andros Island
Sunday night and Monday, and in the Florida Keys on Monday.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain uncertain since Laura is forecast to move near or over
portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura is
forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and could bring storm
surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast
by the middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period
of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by
Tropical Storm Marco earlier in the week. Interests there should
monitor the progress of Laura and Marco and updates to the forecast
during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 18.3N 69.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 19.3N 72.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/0000Z 20.6N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1200Z 22.1N 79.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/0000Z 23.4N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 25/1200Z 24.7N 85.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 26.2N 88.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 29.8N 91.2W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/0000Z 34.7N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

In a recent Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries press release, the department notified the public, particularly waterfowl hunters, of an ongoing population study of box nesting Wood Ducks.
Hunters and duck banders were asked to be on the lookout for banded Wood Duck hens and harvested or recaptured Wood Ducks with tags fixed to the web of their foot. Moreover, they were encouraged to be sure to report them to www.reportband.gov.
The Wood Duck is an iconic bird widely known for its beauty and has often been the subject of artistic work and a favorite of wildlife photographers. To hunters, the gaudy bird makes excellent table fare, and is often a favorite to drop off at the taxidermist.
During the late 1800s and early 1900s, Wood Duck populations plummeted to near extinction as a result of habitat loss, market meat hunting, and being killed for their plumes to decorate ladies’ hats.
The 1918 Migratory Bird Treaty Act prohibited and banned the hunting of Wood Ducks. Subsequently, Wood Duck populations started to rebound during the 1920s.
The first Wood Duck nesting box programs began in 1930s. Today, according to a Ducks Unlimited conservation article titled “Status of the Wood Duck,” it is estimated some 300,000 boxes exist in North America producing some 100,000 ducklings annually.
Wood Duck populations grew dramatically from the late ’50s through the late ’80s in both the Atlantic and Mississippi flyways. And, based on North American Breeding Surveys, continued to grow nationally from 1966 through 2015.
Second only to Mallards, Wood Ducks make up 10% of the national duck harvest each year, therefore making it an important bird to both waterfowl managers and hunters.
LDWF Waterfowl Program Manager Larry Reynolds says the department developed a Wood Duck nest box program in the mid-1990s, where the current Wood Duck study was conceived by the Nemours Wildlife Foundation and started in South Carolina in 2019.
Reynolds said, “Currently, the department maintains approximately 1,750 nest boxes, with a goal of 2,000. We’ve lost boxes in our program to storms, flooding, etc., that we are working to replace to get back to our goal number. However, we have never done a structured evaluation of the program. That has been on my long-term priority list for many years, primarily because of potential competition with expanding populations of Black-Belly Whistling Ducks, suggesting that parasitism and predation rates are high and duckling survival is poor.
“In fact,” Reynolds continued, “the big question of whether Wood Duck nest boxes contribute positively to populations in areas with sufficient nest cavities or are just a population ‘sink’ remains. That is the primary objective of this study.”
The second important objective of the study is Wood Duck recruitment. Essentially, biologists want to see if hens nesting in Wood Duck boxes produce hens that nest in Wood Duck boxes in future generations.
Reynolds says, by partnering with Dr. Kevin Ringelman, an assistant professor at the LSU School of Renewable Resources, who supervised a nest-box program at University of California, Davis, things really became interesting. Ringelman incorporated the use of PIT tags (Passive Integrated Transponders) in his studies that dramatically improved data, because of higher rates of returns compared to web tagging ducklings.
PIT tags are essentially the same type of microchip inserted in family pets such as dogs and cats. By scanning the chip, pets can be identified and returned to their owner.
Dylan Bakner is an LSU Graduate Research Assistant who works closely with Reynolds and as part of the study manages 310 of the LDWF’s nest boxes. A typical day in the field during the first eight months of the year keeps the grad-student busy.
Bakner, who is from Waynesboro, Penns-ylvania, and did his undergraduate studies at Penn State University, said, “Basically we have boxes we want to monitor on a weekly basis. So, pretty much, whatever box you did seven days ago, you’ll visit that day. When we come up to a box, we plug the hole and we take a peek inside to see if there is a hen sitting on a nest. Then we’ll capture the individual and take it out of the box and band them and put a PIT tag in them. We’ll take morphological measurements like the length, width and mass of the eggs and record how many there are and how far along they are in incubation.”
Bakner says during a day in the field after banding, PIT tagging hens and collecting nest data, they’ll switch efforts to capturing ducklings. By monitoring data, the technicians are able to home in on the expected hatch date. If their timing is right, the nest will be full of ducklings that they place web and PIT tags on.
Bakner said, “One thing interesting for Wood Ducks is we’re actually kind of doing 50-50 for each brood. If we have a nest of wood duck ducklings, we’re tagging half of them with web tags and half with PIT tags. The thought is we want to see how the recovery rates differ between the two things. One of the down sides to web tagging is that it’s thought a lot of them are not retained. So, a lot of these ducklings that have been webbed tagged, actually lose those tags.”
Bakner noted that when Black-Bellied Whistling Ducks and ducklings are encountered, all of them are PIT tagged as a way to learn anything they can about the species. Essentially, with an increasing population of Whistling Ducks in the southeastern United States and limited information on the species, it’s a way of obtaining data to better manage them in the future.
The Louisiana study is just a part of a national study of Wood Duck nest boxes being conducted and monitored by the Nemours Wildlife Foundation. Other southeastern states involved in the broad study include Mississippi, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina along with Maryland and Delaware in the northeast. Each field day’s work is uploaded into one large database managed by NWF.
One of the things Bakner has observed is mixed broods, where Wood Ducks will hatch Black-Bellied Whistling Ducks and vise-versa. And, more northerly nest boxes with Mergansers will hatch Wood Ducks and Wood Ducks Mergansers.
The study will continue through 2022 and will be compiled and reported to stakeholders once evaluated.
One final note. PIT tags are inserted along the bird’s spine towards the neck. Hunters who consume Wood Ducks are cautioned there is a remote possibility of finding a PIT tag when preparing a bird for consumption.

Gov. John Bel Edwards encouraged Louisiana residents to prepare as there potentially could be two named weather systems in the Gulf of Mexico next week.
As of Thursday afternoon, Tropical Depression 13 was expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico early next week and become a hurricane before landfall. Edwards said it is unclear where it would make landfall, though.
Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 14 is projected to move towards the northwest portion of the Gulf of Mexico by early next week and is forecast to be a tropical storm.
“The most recent cone that I saw for Tropical Depression 14 does include coastal Louisiana, basically from the central portion of our coast on westward,” Edwards said.
Beginning Friday, Edwards said the Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness will begin working more closely with office of emergency preparedness leaders in the state’s coastal parishes.
“Our team at GOHSEP is obviously monitoring these systems,” he said. “We encourage all of you to do likewise.”
While there are unknowns about the storms, Edwards said, “What we do know is that it’s possible that next week two — not one, but two — very serious storms could make landfall in Louisiana.”

Harry Lee Alexander, Jr., 68, a native of Breaux Bridge, La. and resident of Franklin “Bakertown”, La. passed away peacefully on Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 2:15 p.m. at Franklin Health Care.
A memorial service will be held on Saturday, August 22, 2020 at 11 a.m. at St. Jules Catholic Church 601 Magnolia Street in Franklin, La. (All visitors are asked to adhere to the CDC-local regulations by wearing masks and practicing social distancing). Father Peter Emusa will officiate the services.
Memories of Harry Jr., will forever remain in the hearts of his wife, Glenda Faye Alexander of Franklin, La.; one son, Harry Lee Darnell (LeaAndra) Calais of Breaux Bridge, La.; two daughters, Lisa (Patrick) O’Neal of Katy, TX and Melissa (Lloyd) Calais-Jamison of Charlotte, NC; two brothers, Joseph Noel Alexander of Lafayette, La. and Shadrick (Pamela) Alexander of New Iberia, La.; one sister, Siena Champ of Lafayette, La.; an aunt, Elouise Landry of Breaux Bridge, La.; five grandchildren, seven brothers-in-law, four sisters-in-law and a host of nieces, nephews other relatives and friends.
Harry Jr., was preceded in death by his par-ents, Harry Alexander and LouDella Gabriel Alexander and three brothers, Hercules Alexander, John Lee Alexander and Abrahm Alexander.