RSS Feed

National Weather Service at Lake Charles
523 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

This product covers Southwest Louisiana and Southeast Texas

**HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
Iberia, St. Mary, and Vermilion
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Avoyelles, Lafayette,
Lower St. Martin, St. Landry, and Upper St. Martin
- A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for East Cameron and West
Cameron

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 570 miles southeast of Cameron LA or about 490 miles
south-southeast of Morgan City LA
- 23.7N 87.0W
- Storm Intensity 70 mph
- Movement North-northwest or 335 degrees at 13 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Marco is forecast to continue to move north-northwest
today reaching the central Gulf of Mexico by this evening. A gradual
turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed is expected
after Marco moves inland on Monday and on Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated and Marco is
forecast to become a hurricane today. Marco is expected to be at or
near hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast
on Monday. Rapid weakening is expected after Marco moves inland.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across South Central Louisiana. Potential impacts in this area
include:
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Several bridges and access routes
impassable.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across Central Louisiana.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across South Central Louisiana. Potential impacts in
this area include:
- Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
waves. Damage to non-elevated structures is possible.
- Sections of escape routes and secondary roads become weakened
or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low spots.
- Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
numerous rip currents.
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, and piers. Several small
craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected
anchorages.

Elsewhere across Southwest Louisiana and Southeast Texas, little to
no impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across Southwest Louisiana and Southeast Texas.
Potential impacts include:
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
closures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help
keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Lake Charles LA around 11 am, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

Storm Surge Watch

STORM SURGE WATCH
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1008 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2020

St. Mary-

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Morgan City
- Patterson
- Franklin

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 1 Hurricane force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 55-75 mph with gusts to 100 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Monday morning until
early Thursday morning
- Window for Hurricane force winds: Wednesday afternoon until
Wednesday evening

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 74
to 110 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening wind of equivalent CAT 1 or
2 hurricane force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be urgently completed. Prepare for considerable wind
damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some
having window, door, and garage door failures leading to
structural damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some
destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles.
Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. Several bridges and access
routes impassable.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 2-4 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: early Monday morning until Tuesday
morning

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of
greater than 3 feet above ground.
- PREPARE: Evacuation efforts and flood preparations should
soon be brought to completion before conditions become
unsafe.
- ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for
your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or
needlessly risk lives.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated
by waves. Damage to non-elevated structures is possible.
- Sections of escape routes and secondary roads become
weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable
low spots.
- Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong
and numerous rip currents.
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, and piers. Several small
craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected
anchorages.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally
higher amounts

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
moderate flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are possible.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury or loss of life.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
creeks, canals, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
closures.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds may still occur.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
tornado situation.
- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

LAT...LON 2975 9122 2973 9118 2972 9113 2970 9111
2970 9110 2970 9110 2964 9111 2964 9109
2963 9108 2962 9112 2961 9112 2961 9114
2960 9114 2960 9115 2959 9116 2960 9117
2961 9118 2961 9118 2958 9122 2958 9123
2956 9122 2955 9124 2955 9126 2955 9127
2955 9128 2953 9129 2951 9127 2950 9128
2948 9128 2948 9129 2948 9131 2949 9133
2950 9135 2949 9147 2952 9155 2954 9153
2955 9153 2957 9154 2958 9154 2963 9155
2964 9159 2964 9158 2963 9162 2963 9166
2964 9164 2971 9162 2974 9162 2975 9167
2974 9171 2975 9174 2975 9178 2974 9178
2970 9186 2971 9188 2973 9186 2974 9186
2974 9185 2978 9180 2985 9171 2995 9163
2996 9147 2995 9147 2991 9141 2988 9140
2983 9137 2978 9139 2977 9135 2977 9130
2975 9124 2975 9122
LAT...LON 2933 9135 2933 9137 2940 9151 2943 9149
2943 9147 2937 9135 2933 9135 2933 9135
LAT...LON 2943 9126 2942 9133 2945 9135 2946 9130
2947 9129 2943 9126

$$
Hurricane Watch

Marco Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 11
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA AL142020
1008 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

LAZ054-231115-
/O.CON.KLCH.SS.A.1014.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.HU.A.1014.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
St. Mary-
1008 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Morgan City
- Patterson
- Franklin

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 1 Hurricane force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 55-75 mph with gusts to 100 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Monday morning until
early Thursday morning
- Window for Hurricane force winds: Wednesday afternoon until
Wednesday evening

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 74
to 110 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening wind of equivalent CAT 1 or
2 hurricane force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be urgently completed. Prepare for considerable wind
damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some
having window, door, and garage door failures leading to
structural damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some
destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles.
Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. Several bridges and access
routes impassable.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 2-4 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: early Monday morning until Tuesday
morning

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of
greater than 3 feet above ground.
- PREPARE: Evacuation efforts and flood preparations should
soon be brought to completion before conditions become
unsafe.
- ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for
your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or
needlessly risk lives.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated
by waves. Damage to non-elevated structures is possible.
- Sections of escape routes and secondary roads become
weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable
low spots.
- Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong
and numerous rip currents.
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, and piers. Several small
craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected
anchorages.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally
higher amounts

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
moderate flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are possible.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury or loss of life.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
creeks, canals, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
closures.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds may still occur.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
tornado situation.
- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

$$
Hurricane Local Statement

Tropical Storm Marco Local Statement Advisory Number 11
LAZ029-033-044-045-052>055-231115-

Tropical Storm Marco Local Statement Advisory Number 11
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA AL142020
1015 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

This product covers Southwest Louisiana and Southeast Texas

...MARCO MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
Iberia, St. Mary, and Vermilion
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Avoyelles, Lafayette,
Lower St. Martin, St. Landry, and Upper St. Martin
- A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for East Cameron and West
Cameron

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 600 miles southeast of Intracoastal City LA or about 560
miles south-southeast of Morgan City LA
- 22.8N 86.3W
- Storm Intensity 65 mph
- Movement North-northwest or 335 degrees at 13 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Marco is forecast to continue moving north-northwestward across the
central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and will approach the northern Gulf
Coast on Monday. A gradual turn toward the west with a decrease in
forward speed is expected after Marco moves inland on Monday and on
Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is anticipated and Marco is forecast to become a
hurricane on Sunday. Marco is expected to be at or near hurricane
strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Rapid
weakening is expected after Marco moves inland.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across South Central Louisiana. Potential impacts in this area
include:
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Several bridges and access routes
impassable.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across Central Louisiana.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant impacts
across South Central Louisiana. Potential impacts in this area
include:
- Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
waves. Damage to non-elevated structures is possible.
- Sections of escape routes and secondary roads become weakened
or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low spots.
- Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
numerous rip currents.
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, and piers. Several small
craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected
anchorages.

Elsewhere across Southwest Louisiana and Southeast Texas, little to no
impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across South Central and Central Louisiana. Potential impacts
include:
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across Southwest Louisiana and Southeast Texas.

* TORNADOES:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across Southwest
Louisiana and Southeast Texas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor drainage
area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to
safe shelter on higher ground.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Lake Charles LA around 5 AM, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

TROPICAL STORM MARCO

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

Marco has taken on distinctly sheared appearance. Reports from an
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane, microwave imagery, and
radar imagery from Cuba all indicate that deep convection is limited
to the east side of the tropical storm and that it no longer has a
nearly closed eyewall. The degradation of Marco's structure appears
to be primarily due to strong upper-level southwesterly flow.
Despite the shear, the plane still measured SFMR winds near 55 kt
and the intensity is held at that value.

Marco is a small tropical storm and will be susceptible to rapid
changes in structure and intensity until it reaches the northern
Gulf Coast. Such systems are often not very resilient in a
high-shear environment, however even a brief relaxation of the shear
could result in quick strengthening. It would not be surprising if
Marco's intensity evolves in step-wise fashion consisting of periods
of arrested development followed by fast strengthening if/when the
shear relaxes. While the statistical models still show Marco
becoming a hurricane within 24 h, the run-to-run consistency of the
dynamical guidance remains poor. The latest HWRF, HMON and GFS
forecasts show Marco weakening as it approaches the northern Gulf
Coast, and this remains a distinct possibility if the shear remains
consistently high. The NHC intensity forecast has not been changed
substantially, in large part due to the low confidence of the
forecast, and is consequently above all of the guidance at 36 and 48
h when Marco is forecast to be near the northern Gulf Coast.
Additional adjustments to the forecast are likely on Sunday.

In sharp contrast to earlier today, no large changes were made to
the track forecast, though that should not be interpreted as an
increase in forecast confidence. Marco is forecast to move
north-northwestward and approach the northern Gulf Coast on Monday.
As it moves inland and weakens, a turn toward the west at a slower
forward speed is anticipated. This turn could occur before or after
Marco moves inland, and will be tied in part to exactly when Marco
begins to weaken since a stronger, deeper storm should continue to
feel the affects of the upper-level southwesterly flow and move
farther north while a weaker system will be steered westward by a
low- to mid-level ridge extending over the southeastern US. The NHC
forecast is nearly on top of the multi-model consensus, but the
spread in the guidance is still higher than normal.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of extreme
western Cuba for a few more hours. Heavy rainfall is also expected
overnight in the eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana
Roo and Yucatan, and across far western Cuba, which could result in
flash flooding.

2. Marco is expected to be at or near hurricane strength when it
approaches the central Gulf Coast as a hurricane on Monday.
Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall are possible along portions of the Gulf Coast beginning on
Monday, and Hurricane and Storm Surge watches have been issued.
Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local
government officials.

3. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge,
rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the
middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period of
hazardous weather for areas that may also be affected by Marco.
Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and
updates to the forecast during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 22.8N 86.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 24.3N 87.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 26.3N 87.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 28.3N 88.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 29.6N 90.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 25/1200Z 30.5N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 26/0000Z 30.9N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

TROPICAL STORM LAURA

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

Laura is now located near the eastern portion of the Dominican
Republic, and it is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms over much of Hispaniola and adjacent areas. The NOAA
Hurricane Hunters have been flying in the tropical storm this
evening and have found winds to support maintaining the initial
intensity of 45 kt. Dropsonde data from the aircraft suggests that
the pressure has fallen a little to 1003 mb, and that the center is
still quite elongated.

Laura is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt. The track forecast
reasoning is generally unchanged from earlier. A subtropical high
pressure system is expected to build westward during the next few
days, which should continue to steer Laura generally
west-northwestward at a fairly quick pace. This track should take
the storm across Hispaniola tonight and early Sunday and then across
Cuba late Sunday and Monday. Laura is then expected to emerge over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico, where it will likely turn northwestward
and slow down some as it reaches the western side of the ridge. The
models are in fair agreement that Laura will generally follow a
similar path to Marco when it nears the northern Gulf coast in 3 to
4 days. There has been little change in the guidance this cycle,
and the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one.
This forecast is near the typically reliable TVCA and HCCA
consensus aids.

Since the tropical storm is expected to track across the
mountainous islands of Hispaniola and Cuba during the next 36
to 48 hours, little change in intensity seems like a good bet during
that time period. However, after the storm pulls away from the
islands and moves over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters while being
in low wind shear and high moisture conditions, strengthening seems
very likely. Most of the better-performing intensity models show
Laura making landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast as a
hurricane in about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly
higher than the previous one, and it lies roughly near the middle
of the guidance suite.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across
portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico for a few more
hours. Tropical storm conditions are also expected across portions
of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the
southeastern Bahamas, and central and eastern Cuba through Sunday.
Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas and could cause
mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday, with
widespread river flooding possible in Puerto Rico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of
central and western Cuba, the central Bahamas and Andros Island
Sunday night and Monday, and in the Florida Keys on Monday.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain uncertain since Laura is forecast to move near or over
portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura is
forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and could bring storm
surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast
by the middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period
of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by
Tropical Storm Marco earlier in the week. Interests there should
monitor the progress of Laura and Marco and updates to the forecast
during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 18.3N 69.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 19.3N 72.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/0000Z 20.6N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1200Z 22.1N 79.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/0000Z 23.4N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 25/1200Z 24.7N 85.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 26.2N 88.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 29.8N 91.2W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/0000Z 34.7N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

In a recent Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries press release, the department notified the public, particularly waterfowl hunters, of an ongoing population study of box nesting Wood Ducks.
Hunters and duck banders were asked to be on the lookout for banded Wood Duck hens and harvested or recaptured Wood Ducks with tags fixed to the web of their foot. Moreover, they were encouraged to be sure to report them to www.reportband.gov.
The Wood Duck is an iconic bird widely known for its beauty and has often been the subject of artistic work and a favorite of wildlife photographers. To hunters, the gaudy bird makes excellent table fare, and is often a favorite to drop off at the taxidermist.
During the late 1800s and early 1900s, Wood Duck populations plummeted to near extinction as a result of habitat loss, market meat hunting, and being killed for their plumes to decorate ladies’ hats.
The 1918 Migratory Bird Treaty Act prohibited and banned the hunting of Wood Ducks. Subsequently, Wood Duck populations started to rebound during the 1920s.
The first Wood Duck nesting box programs began in 1930s. Today, according to a Ducks Unlimited conservation article titled “Status of the Wood Duck,” it is estimated some 300,000 boxes exist in North America producing some 100,000 ducklings annually.
Wood Duck populations grew dramatically from the late ’50s through the late ’80s in both the Atlantic and Mississippi flyways. And, based on North American Breeding Surveys, continued to grow nationally from 1966 through 2015.
Second only to Mallards, Wood Ducks make up 10% of the national duck harvest each year, therefore making it an important bird to both waterfowl managers and hunters.
LDWF Waterfowl Program Manager Larry Reynolds says the department developed a Wood Duck nest box program in the mid-1990s, where the current Wood Duck study was conceived by the Nemours Wildlife Foundation and started in South Carolina in 2019.
Reynolds said, “Currently, the department maintains approximately 1,750 nest boxes, with a goal of 2,000. We’ve lost boxes in our program to storms, flooding, etc., that we are working to replace to get back to our goal number. However, we have never done a structured evaluation of the program. That has been on my long-term priority list for many years, primarily because of potential competition with expanding populations of Black-Belly Whistling Ducks, suggesting that parasitism and predation rates are high and duckling survival is poor.
“In fact,” Reynolds continued, “the big question of whether Wood Duck nest boxes contribute positively to populations in areas with sufficient nest cavities or are just a population ‘sink’ remains. That is the primary objective of this study.”
The second important objective of the study is Wood Duck recruitment. Essentially, biologists want to see if hens nesting in Wood Duck boxes produce hens that nest in Wood Duck boxes in future generations.
Reynolds says, by partnering with Dr. Kevin Ringelman, an assistant professor at the LSU School of Renewable Resources, who supervised a nest-box program at University of California, Davis, things really became interesting. Ringelman incorporated the use of PIT tags (Passive Integrated Transponders) in his studies that dramatically improved data, because of higher rates of returns compared to web tagging ducklings.
PIT tags are essentially the same type of microchip inserted in family pets such as dogs and cats. By scanning the chip, pets can be identified and returned to their owner.
Dylan Bakner is an LSU Graduate Research Assistant who works closely with Reynolds and as part of the study manages 310 of the LDWF’s nest boxes. A typical day in the field during the first eight months of the year keeps the grad-student busy.
Bakner, who is from Waynesboro, Penns-ylvania, and did his undergraduate studies at Penn State University, said, “Basically we have boxes we want to monitor on a weekly basis. So, pretty much, whatever box you did seven days ago, you’ll visit that day. When we come up to a box, we plug the hole and we take a peek inside to see if there is a hen sitting on a nest. Then we’ll capture the individual and take it out of the box and band them and put a PIT tag in them. We’ll take morphological measurements like the length, width and mass of the eggs and record how many there are and how far along they are in incubation.”
Bakner says during a day in the field after banding, PIT tagging hens and collecting nest data, they’ll switch efforts to capturing ducklings. By monitoring data, the technicians are able to home in on the expected hatch date. If their timing is right, the nest will be full of ducklings that they place web and PIT tags on.
Bakner said, “One thing interesting for Wood Ducks is we’re actually kind of doing 50-50 for each brood. If we have a nest of wood duck ducklings, we’re tagging half of them with web tags and half with PIT tags. The thought is we want to see how the recovery rates differ between the two things. One of the down sides to web tagging is that it’s thought a lot of them are not retained. So, a lot of these ducklings that have been webbed tagged, actually lose those tags.”
Bakner noted that when Black-Bellied Whistling Ducks and ducklings are encountered, all of them are PIT tagged as a way to learn anything they can about the species. Essentially, with an increasing population of Whistling Ducks in the southeastern United States and limited information on the species, it’s a way of obtaining data to better manage them in the future.
The Louisiana study is just a part of a national study of Wood Duck nest boxes being conducted and monitored by the Nemours Wildlife Foundation. Other southeastern states involved in the broad study include Mississippi, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina along with Maryland and Delaware in the northeast. Each field day’s work is uploaded into one large database managed by NWF.
One of the things Bakner has observed is mixed broods, where Wood Ducks will hatch Black-Bellied Whistling Ducks and vise-versa. And, more northerly nest boxes with Mergansers will hatch Wood Ducks and Wood Ducks Mergansers.
The study will continue through 2022 and will be compiled and reported to stakeholders once evaluated.
One final note. PIT tags are inserted along the bird’s spine towards the neck. Hunters who consume Wood Ducks are cautioned there is a remote possibility of finding a PIT tag when preparing a bird for consumption.