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Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Although the overall cloud pattern of Zeta is still not very well
organized, with a lack of distinct banding features, it continues to
generate very intense deep convection mainly over the southeastern
portion of the circulation. Moreover, in spite of its ragged
appearance, the storm has strengthened today. Reports from a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system this afternoon
indicate that, based on adjusted flight-level and SFMR-observed
surface winds, the intensity has increased to near 45 kt and the
central pressure has fallen to 999 mb. Since the storm will be
moving over the high oceanic heat content of the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and in a moist environment with low vertical shear
through Monday, strengthening is forecast and Zeta will likely
become a hurricane before it nears the Yucatan Peninsula in a day or
so. After Zeta moves into the Gulf of Mexico, southwesterly shear
is likely to increase and oceanic heat content below the cyclone
will diminish, especially when the system approaches the northern
Gulf coast on Wednesday. Therefore, no strengthening is forecast in
2-3 days and Zeta could be weakening by the time it reaches the
northern Gulf coast. However, the intensity forecast is still
subject to significant uncertainty.

The center has been meandering this afternoon, and apparently has
reformed nearer to the deep convection over the southeastern
quadrant. Since this is not considered representative of
larger-scale motion, the system is still considered to be
quasi-stationary at this time. However, the track guidance is in
agreement that Zeta will move northwestward over the next 1-2 days,
passing near or over the Yucatan Peninsula. Thereafter, the cyclone
is likely to turn north-northwestward to northward while it moves on
the western side of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone near Florida. A
turn toward the north-northeast is expected when Zeta nears the
northern Gulf coast, due to an approaching shortwave trough. The
track guidance has more than the usual amount of spread at the
72-hour time frame, with the ECMWF and the GFS predictions being
about 300 miles apart near the northern Gulf coast. The official
forecast track lies between these 2 solutions, and is similar to the
previous NHC track. However, given the inherent uncertainties, one
should not focus on the exact forecast track.

Based on the new intensity forecast, the government of Mexico has
issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the Yucatan peninsula.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions and storm surge are expected in portions of
the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and early
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions could occur over extreme western
Cuba on Monday.

2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected from Zeta across
portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica,
the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the
Keys. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

3. Zeta is forecast to be at or just below hurricane strength when
it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and there is an
increasing risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts from
Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should
monitor the progress of Zeta and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 17.7N 83.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 18.7N 84.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 19.7N 85.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 21.1N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/1800Z 23.2N 89.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 25.7N 90.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 29.4N 90.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/1800Z 37.0N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Republicans in the Louisiana House of Representatives say they have gathered enough signatures to suspend Gov. John Bel Edwards’ COVID-19 emergency declaration for seven days.

The statute giving either chamber of the Legislature the right to end an emergency order has not been tested in court, though that's probably about to change.

The petition directs Edwards to issue a proclamation ending the emergency declaration. While the governor refused to say explicitly on Friday that he would not comply, noting that he hadn't yet seen the petition, he left little doubt of his position.

"We have a public health emergency," he said, suggesting that lifting the order would be "reckless, irresponsible and unconscionable."

"The proclamation that I issued remains in full force and effect," Edwards said. "I take my responsibility to the people of Louisiana very seriously, especially during this global pandemic."

Rep. Alan Seabaugh, a Shreveport Republican who has been urging his colleagues to sign a similar petition for months, said he doesn't expect Edwards to comply.

"He's been, in my opinion, exceeding his legal authority since March [when the first set of COVID-19 restrictions were issued]," Seabaugh said. "I don't think he's all of a sudden going to start doing what he's supposed to."

Seabaugh said there is no doubt the relevant statute is constitutional. While the ability of one chamber to make such a major change without the other has drawn scrutiny, he pointed to other examples such as the Senate's right to confirm or deny appointments.

The most likely scenario is that Edwards will not comply, and Attorney General Jeff Landry will file a writ of mandamus asking a court to order the governor to lift the restrictions. Landry says the law is constitutional and his office stands ready to defend it.

"I trust people to make the right decisions," Seabaugh said, when asked if he had any public health concerns about lifting the order. People in north Louisiana already are not complying with the governor's order to wear face coverings in public, he added.

Asked why the petition only calls for a seven-day suspension, Seabaugh said leadership would not support anything longer. House members tend to fall in line with the House speaker, especially when the speaker is a member of their party.

"Practically speaking," he said, "I don't think you can put the genie back in the bottle." If Edwards tries to issue another order after seven days, getting another one passed won't be difficult, he added.

"We can play emergency order whack-a-mole," Seabaugh said.

Republicans have complained about the repeated renewals of orders imposing mandates meant to limit the spread of the new coronavirus, citing the economic and social costs and their lack of input into those decisions.

“When any emergency process lasts this long, the public deserves transparency,” House Republican Delegation Chairman Blake Miguez said. “The governor should be providing more information and data, not more mandates and restrictions.”

Edwards said he has always been transparent about the science and data behind his mandates, all of which are in line with the recommendations of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the White House Coronavirus Task Force.

House Democratic Caucus Chairman Sam Jenkins called the move “dangerous, reckless and short-sighted,” reminding his colleagues on the House floor Friday that "a petition is not a cure."

“If this petition successfully ends Governor Edwards’ emergency order, 4.5 million Louisianans will needlessly face additional risk of catching COVID and experiencing dire consequences, including death,” he said. “If this petition is successful, Louisiana risks losing billions of dollars in federal funding, free community COVID testing, access to PPE, food banks and other crucial lifelines our people are depending on in the midst of this global pandemic and in the fallout of multiple severe hurricanes.”

Katie Luc was crowned Central Catholic's homecoming queen in a ceremony held in the school's new gym following the football team's 24-15 loss to Centerville. The crowning was moved indoors due to the threat of inclement weather. With Luc, third from left, are, from left, Kerrilyn Luc, sister; Kerry Luc, father; and Gwen Luc, mother.

Why Trump for President?
The next Presidential election
could be the most important election
in your lifetime. It will decide what
kind of Country we will have in the
future: a Socialist government or a
Capitalist Free Enterprise System with
Individual Initiatives.
Socialism is a government where a
handful of people run the government.
They run and control everything in
your life.
The Capitalist Free Enterprise
System has made our Country the
greatest and richest nation in the
world.
Socialism has never worked
anywhere in the world.
Despite the hostile, radical left wing
National News Media, Trump has
indeed made America Great Again.
He has vowed that America will
never be a Socialist Country.
Biden, on the other hand tries hard
to convince people that he is not a tax
and spend Socialist but the fact of the
matter is that he is without a doubt.
Another consideration is the fact
that in the event the President cannot
serve, the The Vice President takes
Office.
Vice President Mike Pence’s track
record proves that he is capable of
being President.
Think carefully. The stakes are
high.
Trump deserves reelection.
LSN
Editorials represent the opinions
of this newspaper, and not of any one
individual.