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Grace's forecast track moves farther south in Gulf

Tropical Depression Grace Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021

Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters were both able to
locate a center for Grace--probably the most well-defined center
observed over the past few days. That center now appears to be
moving onshore along the Barahona Peninsula of the Dominican
Republic as we speak. The planes measured several possible areas
of tropical-storm-force winds from the SFMR, however these
observations have not been supported by the more reliable 925-mb
flight-level winds for weaker systems, which were only as high as
38 kt, and warrant maintaining the 30-kt initial intensity.
Dropsonde data indicate that the central pressure has fallen to 1007
mb.

The aircraft fixes confirm that Grace is moving westward, or 280/13
kt. High pressure over the western Atlantic is forecast to slide
westward over the southeastern United States during the next
several days, which should keep Grace on a westward to west-
northwestward trajectory for the entire 5-day forecast period.
This scenario is agreed upon by all of the available track models,
and the new NHC track forecast has only been nudged slightly
southward from the previous forecast based on the latest consensus
aids.

Grace's intensity forecast remains complicated by interaction with
land and the possibility of some westerly shear during the forecast
period. However, the southern shift in the forecast track takes
the center of Grace more definitively over very warm 30 degrees
Celsius waters in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Therefore,
gradual strengthening is anticipated while Grace approaches the
Yucatan coast of Mexico. Once the system reaches the Gulf of
Mexico, the shear appears to decrease, and conditions there will
likely be conducive for additional strengthening. In fact, many of
the models, including the consensus aids, bring Grace to hurricane
intensity, and the NHC intensity forecast has therefore been bumped
upward, bringing Grace very near hurricane strength by the end of
the forecast period.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba,
Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands may lead to flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, with the potential for mudslides highest in Haiti
and the Dominican Republic.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of
Hispaniola today and tonight, and over Jamaica on Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the southern
coast of Cuba on Tuesday, spreading westward to the Cayman Islands
and other portions of the southern coast of Cuba Tuesday evening
through Wednesday morning.

3. There is a increasing risk of wind and rainfall impacts over
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday.
Interests there areas should monitor the progress of Grace and
updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 17.7N 71.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 18.2N 73.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...S COAST OF HAITI
24H 17/1200Z 18.8N 76.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 19.4N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 20.1N 82.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 20.9N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 21.6N 88.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...N COAST OF YUCATAN
96H 20/1200Z 22.5N 94.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 23.0N 98.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND

BURNEY “CANE HAULER” CARTER, JR.

Burney “Cane Hauler” Carter, Jr., 61, a native of Charenton, La. and resident of Lake Charles, La. passed away peacefully on Friday, August 13, 2021 at 6:20 p.m. at Landmark of Lake Charles Retirement Home in Lake Charles, La.
Visitation will be observed on Saturday, August 21, 2021 from 9 a.m. until funeral services at 11 a.m. at Jones Funeral Home, 1101 Main Street Franklin, La. (All visitors are asked to adhere to the CDC-local regulations by wearing masks and practicing social distancing). Funeral Services will be accessible by viewing the Jones Funeral Home Facebook page on Saturday, August 21, 2021 at 11 a.m.
Burney “Cane Hauler” is survived by six sons; Joseph Richardson of Bunkie, La., Burney Carter III of Bunkie, La., Courtney Richardson, Justin Richardson, Jeremy Richardson all of Franklin, La. and Terrance Payton of Patterson, La., seven daughters; Lisa Richardson Phillips of Lafayette, La, Aleida Payton of Patterson, La., Erica Richardson, Angelina Mack, Brittany Mack Bastin, Joniquia Gunner, all of Franklin, La., and Ashley Richardson of Bunkie, La.; two brothers, Robert Carter of Spring, TX and Kevin Carter of Charenton, La.; and two sisters, Judy Carter Cuffee of Durham, NC and Alida A. Carter of Charenton, La., along with 19 grandchildren and host of nieces, nephews, family and friends.
Mr. Carter was preceded in death by his father, his mother, a brother, and two sisters.
Arrangement entrusted to Jones Funeral Home of Morgan City-Franklin-Jeanerette and Houma.
Visit www.jones-funeral-home.com to send condolences to family.

Debunking myths about the COVID-19 vaccines

Vaccinating a high percentage of individuals against COVID-19 is a key component of the global strategy to diminish the effects of the virus that first appeared in late 2019. Since the distribution of the COVID-19 vaccines began in the United States on Dec. 14, 2020, more than 294 million doses have been administered, and more than 135 million people, or 41% of the total U.S. population, have been fully vaccinated, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released in May 2021. Those numbers have risen since the Delta variant outbreak and more people are seeking the vaccine.
As vaccine eligibility continues to open up and now includes children as young as 12 for certain vaccines, public health agencies are urging eligible people to get vaccinated. However, with myths continuing to circulate, individuals may need a little more reassurance that vaccination is the smart and safe choice.
The following information, courtesy of Johns Hopkins Medicine, the CDC, the Cleveland Clinic and the Mayo Clinic Health System, can clear up some misinformation about the COVID-19 vaccines.
Myth #1: Because COVID-19 vaccines were rushed, they’re not safe and can’t be trusted.
Fact: The vaccines were developed in record time but not because there were shortcuts in the process. Certain red tape was navigated more efficiently than it had been with past vaccines. Plus, the new technology at the center of the mRNA-based vaccines has been in development for more than three decades. The vaccine developers put the vaccines through rigorous clinical trials involving tens of thousands of volunteers.
Myth #2: The vaccines affect fertility.
Fact: COVID-19 vaccines encourage the body to create copies of the spike protein found on the surface of the coronavirus and “teach” the immune system to fight the virus that has that specific spike protein. There was confusion when this spike protein was mistakenly reported as the same as another spike protein that is involved in the growth and attachment of the placenta during pregnancy.
During the Pfizer vaccine tests, 23 female study volunteers became pregnant. The only one to suffer a pregnancy loss had received the placebo and not the vaccine.
Myth #3: COVID-19 vaccines will change my DNA.
Fact: Both mRNA vaccines and viral vector vaccine, which is the technology for the Janssen vaccine, deliver genetic material to cells to start virus protection. The material never enters the nucleus of the cell, which is where DNA is stored. That means these vaccines do not alter or interact with DNA in any way.
Myth #4: These vaccines have severe side effects.
Fact: Side effects to the vaccines are short-term, mild or moderate reactions that often resolve without complication or injury and include things like headache, body aches, fatigue, or mild fever. The Janssen/Johnson&Johnson vaccine has been linked to blood clots in a very small percentage of vaccine recipients, but the risk was so minimal that the vaccine was cleared for use after a brief pause.
Myth #5: The vaccines were made using controversial ingredients.
Fact: The COVID-19 vaccines were not developed using fetal tissue, eggs, latex or other allergens. In addition, they do not contain microchips or tracking devices.
Millions of people have been vaccinated against COVID-19. To continue this public health initiative, people who may still be wary about the vaccines can learn more about them by speaking with their physicians.

Bakery’s food-safety issues have former worker worried

DEAR ABBY: A year ago I was working at a small wholesale bakery with maybe 15 employees. While I was there, the place was overrun with food-safety issues, including mice, allergen cross-contact issues and poor employee hygiene practices. At the time, the owner was working on fixing some of the problems, but not fast enough for my taste. Although he was never my favorite person, he was clearly overwhelmed with running a business and didn’t have the resources to fix the problems.
Now that I have been gone for some time, I’m on the fence about whether I should leave an online review or comment detailing some of the problems. I don’t want to hurt a struggling business, and it’s possible these problems have been fixed, but there is no way for me to know for sure because I am no longer there. Personally, I think customers should know about these issues before purchasing their products, but I don’t want to stick my nose where it shouldn’t go. Even if I leave a review anonymously, there is always a chance they will find out. Advice?
POSSIBLE WHISTLEBLOWER

DEAR WHISTLEBLOWER: I agree customers of that bakery should know there are possible problems. Rather than leave an anonymous review, contact the health department in your city and report the conditions you observed. It should trigger an inspection of the place. Your personal feelings about the owner have nothing to do with this. The cross-contamination you described could trigger a possibly fatal allergic reaction. And the vermin infestation and poor hygiene practices of the employees could cause someone to become seriously ill.

DEAR ABBY: My 53rd high school class reunion is coming up. Former classmates have been emailing me about participating. I do not want to go. I went to my 50th and that was enough catching up for me. I like hearing about the lives of my former classmates from our class correspondent, but 50 years ago I moved more than 1,000 miles away and began a new life. So did my parents and siblings.
Today, my parents are gone, and my siblings and I are spread around the country. There’s nothing left in my hometown for me other than the graves of my father’s family, our old family home and memories. Is there something wrong with me because I’d rather spend time with my friends in my present city and travel to the remaining places on my bucket list? Should I be ashamed of my attitude, or am I “normal”?
FEELING GUILTY IN TEXAS

DEAR FEELING: It is normal and healthy to want to concentrate on the present rather than keep revisiting the past. I see nothing shameful about it and nothing to feel guilty for. You attended your 50th and touched base with your old classmates. It was a blessing to be able to do that. If, however, the trip down memory lane and the number of classmates no longer on this side of the sod depressed you, skip future reunions, concentrate on the future, and do it without beating yourself up.
***
For everything you need to know about wedding planning, order “How to Have a Lovely Wedding.” Send your name and mailing address, plus check or money order for $8 to: Dear Abby, Wedding Booklet, P.O. Box 447, Mount Morris, IL 61054-0447.

Morgan City man booked on arson charge after Berwick fire

Berwick police have arrested a Morgan City man on an aggravated arson charge after an Aug. 3 fire at a Pharr Street home.

David Domangue, Poplar Street, Morgan City, was booked on the charge Thursday.

On Aug. 3, the Berwick Police Department was dispatched to an address on Pharr Street to assist the Berwick Volunteer Fire Department with a residential fire.

During the course of the investigation, Berwick detectives as well as fire department investigators determined that the fire was suspicious in nature, Berwick Police Chief David Leonard said in a press release. Further investigation was required. It was also learned that there were two occupants inside the home at the time of the fire.

Through investigative means, detectives developed Domangue as a suspect and was able to conduct interviews and also collected evidence to obtain an arrest warrant for his arrest. About 1:40 p.m. Thursday, detectives with the assistance of the St. Mary Parish Sheriff’s Office located Domangue in the Bayou Vista area, and he was placed under arrest without incident on the Berwick warrant.

He was transported to Berwick Jail, where he was booked on the charge and was later released after posting a $50,000 bond.

UPDATED: Grace's forecast track bends toward central Gulf

Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021

Radar data from the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, as well as
satellite images, indicate that Grace is still not a well-organized
tropical cyclone, although over the past few hours banding features
have become more evident and the outflow has improved. An earlier
ASCAT-C overpass showed peak winds of 30 kt associated with Grace,
and the latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was 35 kt.
Assuming some undersampling from the ASCAT instrument, the initial
intensity estimate remains 35 kt for this advisory.

Grace continues to move fairly quickly to the west-northwest, or
285/18 kt to the south of a strong mid-level ridge. Aside from the
HWRF, which is a northern outlier and has not performed particularly
well for Fred or Grace, and also the Canadian model, which is a
southern outlier, the track guidance has come into better agreement
on the future path of Grace. The cyclone is expected to slow its
forward speed today, and maintain a west-northwestward motion to the
south of the ridge for the next several days. The NHC track forecast
is little changed from the previous one through 72 h, and then was
adjusted a little to the south of the previous one thereafter. On
this path, Grace would pass just south of Puerto Rico later today,
cross Hispaniola tonight through Monday night, then move along the
northern coast of Cuba Tuesday and Wednesday.

Grace is in an environment favorable for intensification, and the
NHC intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening to 45 kt
before it reaches the Dominican Republic Monday morning. This
portion of the forecast is in good agreement with the various
consensus models. The intensity forecast becomes highly uncertain
thereafter, and is dependent on how much of the Greater Antilles the
cyclone interacts with. Based on the current track forecast, Grace
would cross a large portion of the rugged terrain of Hispaniola,
then interact with the landmass of Cuba for a couple of days. There
is a decent chance that the low-level center of Grace could
dissipate over Hispaniola as the system opens back into a tropical
wave. However, due to the possibility of the center remaining intact
after crossing that landmass, the NHC forecast calls for weakening
followed by little change in strength thereafter as it moves along
the Cuban coastline. The latest NHC intensity forecast beyond 24 h
is little changed from the previous one, and is close to the FSU
Superensemble.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
Leewards Islands this morning and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
today. Tropical storm conditions are expected over eastern parts of
the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible over western portions of the Dominican Republic and
Haiti Monday and Monday night.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the
Leeward and Virgin Islands, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Across
Puerto Rico, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small
stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across the rest of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida, but forecast uncertainty remains higher
than usual. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of
Grace and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 16.9N 64.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 17.5N 66.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 18.3N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 18.9N 70.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA
48H 17/0600Z 19.8N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA
60H 17/1800Z 20.9N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 18/0600Z 22.0N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR CUBA COAST
96H 19/0600Z 23.9N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 25.6N 86.2W 45 KT 50 MPH

Portion of Victor II will be closed Saturday

Victor II Boulevard between La. 70 and Clothilde Street will be closed in both directions starting at 6:30 a.m. Saturday until further notice. There will be no thru traffic while city work crews work to repair a drainage line that crosses underneath Victor II.

Motorists can use David Drive and Ninth Street (La. 70) as an alternate route.

Karen Duhon enters guilty plea in Capital Management fraud case

Karen Duhon, accused of being part of a fraud scheme that bilked more than $3 million from Morgan City's Capital Management Consultants Inc., entered a guilty plea Thursday to one count of a five-count federal indictment as part of a plea agreement.

Duhon pleaded guilty in U.S. District Court in Lafayette to the single count of mail fraud. She could be sentenced to up to 20 years in prison, and will be required to repay nearly $3.2 million. Sentencing is set for Dec. 27 before U.S. District Judge Maurice Hicks in Lafayette.

A federal grand jury indicted Duhon in December 2018 on one count of conspiracy to commit wire and mail fraud, three counts of wire fraud, and one count of mail fraud.

Duhon worked as a bookkeeper for Capital Management from October 1973 to August 2014. Peter Guarisco had a controlling interest in the company until his death in 2005, when control passed to his five children.

According to the indictment, in January 1999 Duhon began writing checks to herself for more than her salary and had them signed by another employee who was a named signatory for Capital Management. Earlier court cases identified the signatory as James Scott Tucker.

Duhon also falsified the company's books to conceal the fact that she wrote the checks, the indictment said.

Duhon deposited the money into accounts owned by her and her husband. In all, the checks totaled about $3.2 million.

Also, the indictment said, Tucker and Duhon sometimes helped the Guarisco heirs with their personal finances. Between November 2012 and January 2014, Duhon had access to checks from the account belonging to one of the heirs.

Duhon used the account to pay $127,920 on her American Express cards, the indictment said, and in December 2013, she mailed a check for about $8,700 to American Express. That was allegation on which the mail fraud count was based.

Duhon's husband, Armond Duhon, was sentenced to 20 years in prison after his conviction in 16th Judicial District Court on more than 200 theft counts in relation to the Capital Management fraud case.

Donnasue Peveto, Scott Tucker's assistant, pleaded guilty in the 16th JDC in 2015 to 123 theft counts in cases alleging more than $9 million illegally taken from Capital Management.

Tucker died in 2014. Peveto died in 2016.

Peter Guarisco's heirs took Tucker's estate to court to recover the missing money in a lawsuit that was settled in 2017.

"The wheels of justice turn very slowly," Capital Management spokesman Marwan Mohey-El-Dien said Friday. "But in the end, justice is served."

Karen Duhon has expressed no remorse, Mohey-El-Dien said, and the family will ask for a strict sentence.

"Had Mrs. Duhon come forward immediately and admitted what she had done and helped us find the assets, we would not have taken an adverse position," Mohey-El-Dien said. "We would have helped her."

59 new COVID cases, one death in St. Mary

Fifty-nine new COVID cases since Thursday were reported by the Louisiana Office of Public Health at midday Friday.

One COVID-related death was also reported.

The pandemic totals for St. Mary are now 7,096 COVID positives and 162 deaths.

In Louisiana Department of Health Region 3, which includes St. Mary, 492 of 599 hospital beds were in use Friday, and 73 of 82 intensive care beds were occupied.

Statewide, 7,548 new cases were reported Friday along with 57 deaths. Six more COVID hospitalizations were reported, raising that total to 2,907.

Ochsner
Ochsner Health System, which operates Ochsner St. Mary in Morgan City, reported that its hospitals in Louisiana and Mississippi had 1,043 COVID patients Wednesday, down 20 from Tuesday.

That was the second consecutive daily decline.

In Ochsner’s Bayou Region, which includes Ochsner St. Mary and partner Terrebonne General, the number of COVID patients in system hospitals fell by eight to 104.

Ochsner St. Mary had 24 COVID patients Wednesday, and 23 of them were unvaccinated.

The latest OPH report says St. Mary’s vaccination rate is now 30.9%, lagging behind the state and national rates.

Festivals
Plans are moving ahead for the Louisiana Shrimp and Petroleum Festival in Morgan City over the Labor Day weekend.

The Sugar Cane Festival’s organizers in New Iberia also plan to go on with the event Sept. 23-26.

Two of Louisiana’s largest festivals, the New Orleans Jazz and Heritage Festival and Festivals Acadiens et Creoles in Lafayette, have been postponed until spring. Both were scheduled for October.

COVID works its way through School Board agenda

CENTERVILLE — Just as people across St. Mary Parish are forced to cope with the continuing COVID-19 pandemic, the coronavirus worked its way into School Board deliberations on issues ranging from insurance to school lunches.
At the board’s Thursday meeting, insurance consultant James Perez said the system’s insurance plan for employees and retirees has been hit with a larger than expected number of large claims, due in part to COVID-19.
Among the claims for $25,000 or more, four are COVID-related, Perez said. Other claims may be indirectly related to the pandemic because they’re for care that was deferred during the pandemic.
The district has seen 253 confirmed cases since April 2020, Perez said.
In the first four months of the year, the district’s claims exceeded premiums by the largest margin since 2017, Perez said.
The school system will consider renewal of its coverage with United Health Care this fall.
“I don’t expect it to be pretty,” Perez said.
Also Thursday:
—The board voted to accept data that could keep students eligible for free school breakfasts and lunches.
Claire Guarisco, the system’s supervisor of child nutrition, said eligibility rules were waived last year to allow free meals for students across the district because of the pandemic.
Guarisco also said she has been unable to get 29 food items as well as other supplies for school cafeterias because of what appear to be COVID-related shortages.
She’s seeking authority to advertise for bids as items become available rather than making a large one-time purchase each year as in the past.
—The board approved a resolution to allow a bond issue of $11.5 million. The move is essentially a refinancing of the bond issue that paid for the construction of the new Patterson Junior High School.
Jason Akers of Foley and Judell said the lower interest rate on the $11.5 million issue will save $450,000 over the life of the bonds.
—The board renewed the memorandum of understanding with the St. Mary/Vermilion Community Action Agency for operation of the parish’s Head Start program.
—The board approved an Instructional Continuity Plan for the new school year.
The plan puts St. Mary in line with state guidelines for meeting the educational needs of students in the event of new COVID closures and other public health emergencies.

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