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Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021

Radar data from the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, as well as
satellite images, indicate that Grace is still not a well-organized
tropical cyclone, although over the past few hours banding features
have become more evident and the outflow has improved. An earlier
ASCAT-C overpass showed peak winds of 30 kt associated with Grace,
and the latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was 35 kt.
Assuming some undersampling from the ASCAT instrument, the initial
intensity estimate remains 35 kt for this advisory.

Grace continues to move fairly quickly to the west-northwest, or
285/18 kt to the south of a strong mid-level ridge. Aside from the
HWRF, which is a northern outlier and has not performed particularly
well for Fred or Grace, and also the Canadian model, which is a
southern outlier, the track guidance has come into better agreement
on the future path of Grace. The cyclone is expected to slow its
forward speed today, and maintain a west-northwestward motion to the
south of the ridge for the next several days. The NHC track forecast
is little changed from the previous one through 72 h, and then was
adjusted a little to the south of the previous one thereafter. On
this path, Grace would pass just south of Puerto Rico later today,
cross Hispaniola tonight through Monday night, then move along the
northern coast of Cuba Tuesday and Wednesday.

Grace is in an environment favorable for intensification, and the
NHC intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening to 45 kt
before it reaches the Dominican Republic Monday morning. This
portion of the forecast is in good agreement with the various
consensus models. The intensity forecast becomes highly uncertain
thereafter, and is dependent on how much of the Greater Antilles the
cyclone interacts with. Based on the current track forecast, Grace
would cross a large portion of the rugged terrain of Hispaniola,
then interact with the landmass of Cuba for a couple of days. There
is a decent chance that the low-level center of Grace could
dissipate over Hispaniola as the system opens back into a tropical
wave. However, due to the possibility of the center remaining intact
after crossing that landmass, the NHC forecast calls for weakening
followed by little change in strength thereafter as it moves along
the Cuban coastline. The latest NHC intensity forecast beyond 24 h
is little changed from the previous one, and is close to the FSU
Superensemble.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
Leewards Islands this morning and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
today. Tropical storm conditions are expected over eastern parts of
the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible over western portions of the Dominican Republic and
Haiti Monday and Monday night.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the
Leeward and Virgin Islands, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Across
Puerto Rico, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small
stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across the rest of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida, but forecast uncertainty remains higher
than usual. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of
Grace and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 16.9N 64.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 17.5N 66.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 18.3N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 18.9N 70.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA
48H 17/0600Z 19.8N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA
60H 17/1800Z 20.9N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 18/0600Z 22.0N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR CUBA COAST
96H 19/0600Z 23.9N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 25.6N 86.2W 45 KT 50 MPH

Karen Duhon, accused of being part of a fraud scheme that bilked more than $3 million from Morgan City's Capital Management Consultants Inc., entered a guilty plea Thursday to one count of a five-count federal indictment as part of a plea agreement.

Duhon pleaded guilty in U.S. District Court in Lafayette to the single count of mail fraud. She could be sentenced to up to 20 years in prison, and will be required to repay nearly $3.2 million. Sentencing is set for Dec. 27 before U.S. District Judge Maurice Hicks in Lafayette.

A federal grand jury indicted Duhon in December 2018 on one count of conspiracy to commit wire and mail fraud, three counts of wire fraud, and one count of mail fraud.

Duhon worked as a bookkeeper for Capital Management from October 1973 to August 2014. Peter Guarisco had a controlling interest in the company until his death in 2005, when control passed to his five children.

According to the indictment, in January 1999 Duhon began writing checks to herself for more than her salary and had them signed by another employee who was a named signatory for Capital Management. Earlier court cases identified the signatory as James Scott Tucker.

Duhon also falsified the company's books to conceal the fact that she wrote the checks, the indictment said.

Duhon deposited the money into accounts owned by her and her husband. In all, the checks totaled about $3.2 million.

Also, the indictment said, Tucker and Duhon sometimes helped the Guarisco heirs with their personal finances. Between November 2012 and January 2014, Duhon had access to checks from the account belonging to one of the heirs.

Duhon used the account to pay $127,920 on her American Express cards, the indictment said, and in December 2013, she mailed a check for about $8,700 to American Express. That was allegation on which the mail fraud count was based.

Duhon's husband, Armond Duhon, was sentenced to 20 years in prison after his conviction in 16th Judicial District Court on more than 200 theft counts in relation to the Capital Management fraud case.

Donnasue Peveto, Scott Tucker's assistant, pleaded guilty in the 16th JDC in 2015 to 123 theft counts in cases alleging more than $9 million illegally taken from Capital Management.

Tucker died in 2014. Peveto died in 2016.

Peter Guarisco's heirs took Tucker's estate to court to recover the missing money in a lawsuit that was settled in 2017.

"The wheels of justice turn very slowly," Capital Management spokesman Marwan Mohey-El-Dien said Friday. "But in the end, justice is served."

Karen Duhon has expressed no remorse, Mohey-El-Dien said, and the family will ask for a strict sentence.

"Had Mrs. Duhon come forward immediately and admitted what she had done and helped us find the assets, we would not have taken an adverse position," Mohey-El-Dien said. "We would have helped her."

CENTERVILLE — Just as people across St. Mary Parish are forced to cope with the continuing COVID-19 pandemic, the coronavirus worked its way into School Board deliberations on issues ranging from insurance to school lunches.
At the board’s Thursday meeting, insurance consultant James Perez said the system’s insurance plan for employees and retirees has been hit with a larger than expected number of large claims, due in part to COVID-19.
Among the claims for $25,000 or more, four are COVID-related, Perez said. Other claims may be indirectly related to the pandemic because they’re for care that was deferred during the pandemic.
The district has seen 253 confirmed cases since April 2020, Perez said.
In the first four months of the year, the district’s claims exceeded premiums by the largest margin since 2017, Perez said.
The school system will consider renewal of its coverage with United Health Care this fall.
“I don’t expect it to be pretty,” Perez said.
Also Thursday:
—The board voted to accept data that could keep students eligible for free school breakfasts and lunches.
Claire Guarisco, the system’s supervisor of child nutrition, said eligibility rules were waived last year to allow free meals for students across the district because of the pandemic.
Guarisco also said she has been unable to get 29 food items as well as other supplies for school cafeterias because of what appear to be COVID-related shortages.
She’s seeking authority to advertise for bids as items become available rather than making a large one-time purchase each year as in the past.
—The board approved a resolution to allow a bond issue of $11.5 million. The move is essentially a refinancing of the bond issue that paid for the construction of the new Patterson Junior High School.
Jason Akers of Foley and Judell said the lower interest rate on the $11.5 million issue will save $450,000 over the life of the bonds.
—The board renewed the memorandum of understanding with the St. Mary/Vermilion Community Action Agency for operation of the parish’s Head Start program.
—The board approved an Instructional Continuity Plan for the new school year.
The plan puts St. Mary in line with state guidelines for meeting the educational needs of students in the event of new COVID closures and other public health emergencies.

Michael Wayne Besse, 67, a native of Morgan City, LA and resident of Berwick, LA passed away on August 4, 2021. He went to his heavenly home surrounded by his loving family.
Michael was a loving husband, father, grandfather and friend. He enjoyed doing everything he could to support his children and grandchildren over the years. Football games, softball games, band festivals, recitals, you name it and he was there. He also enjoyed drinking coffee with all his best friends every morning. You all impacted his life more than you will ever know.
Left to cherish in his memory are his wife of 42 years, Dewanna Besse, his son Chad Besse and wife Holly, and his daughter, Danielle Businelle and husband Anthony. He also leaves behind four granddaughters who meant the world to him, Zoey, Charlotte, Kaylee, and Catherine. Last but not least his furbaby Pepper. He is also survived by brothers-in-law, Warren, Keith and Barry Lutrick; sister-in-law, Sandra Rogers.
He was preceded death by his parents Stella and Eugene Besse, one sister, Rae Ann Haase and in-laws, O’Reese and David Lutnick. His grandparents, Eugene C. Besse and Andrea Besse and Elphege and Lavinia Solar.
A memorial service will be held Monday, August 16, 2021 at Cornerstone Ministries, 305 Everett, St., Morgan City, LA, from 3:30 pm until funeral time at 5 pm. In lieu of flowers, the family asks for donations to help defray medical and funeral costs.
Special thanks to all the doctors and nurses at Ochsner St. Mary, who cared for Dad over the last couple of weeks. We are grateful for all you did and the compassion you showed.
Samart Funeral Home of Houma, West Park is in charge of arrangements.