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Louisiana Politics: Bid for House super-majority could come down to the wire

Republicans have already secured a super-majority in the Louisiana Senate following the recent primary elections, but GOP diehards will have to wait until the Nov. 16 runoff elections are decided to learn whether the party has accomplished the same in the House of Representatives.
So far Republicans have 63 seats in the lower chamber, just seven seats short of a veto-proof super-majority to match the partisan lead enjoyed by the Senate.
According to Michael Henderson, an assistant professor of political communication at Louisiana State University’s Manship School of Mass Communication, there are only seven House runoffs remaining that feature Republican contenders against opponents from a different party, and all of them are located in GOP-leaning areas.
If Democrats want to hold off the super-majority, Henderson predicted the party’s best chance may be in Baton Rouge’s House District 70, where Democrat Belinda Davis is facing off against Republican Barbara Reich Freiberg.
The suburban district is an area where President Donald Trump could have performed better and it’s one of only three House districts where a Democrat is running against a non-incumbent Republican, Henderson said.
“There is bad news too for Democrats. In the primary, suburban voters did not penalize Republican legislative candidates for Trump the way they have elsewhere in the country,” Henderson said, adding, “There are no easy paths for Democrats through these seven races, but their best chance for a flip appears to be the 70th District.”
If Louisiana’s political class sees it the same way as Henderson, then end result could be an avalanche of Republican and Democratic dollars into a single legislative district few outside of Baton Rouge were even watching.

Incumbent has lead
in new governor poll
The Nexstar television stations in Louisiana rebased a new poll Monday that showed Gov. John Bel Edwards with a slim edge over challenger Eddie Rispone, suggesting “turnout matters a lot more” than many politicos were expecting.
Conducted by JMC Analytics and Polling Oct. 24-26 and underwritten by Nexstar Media Group, the survey has Edwards leading Rispone by two points — within the margin of error — or 48 percent to 46 percent.
“Given that the undecided percentage is down to 6 percent, this is now an election where turnout matters a lot more than persuasion, particularly with early voting less than a week away,” said pollster John Couvillon.
The Nexstar-JMC poll also found Secretary of State Kyle Ardoin in a comfortable position for his runoff election, leading Democrat Gwen Collins-Greenup 48 percent to 32 percent.
The poll included a question on Trump as well, finding his support remains “relatively strong in Louisiana, with a 52 percent job approval rating and 54 percent opposed to the recent inquiry launched by congressional Democrats.

Political History: ‘War of the Worlds,’ via Shreveport
Wednesday marks the 79th anniversary (Oct. 30, 1938) of the infamous “War of the Worlds” live broadcast, when actor Orson Welles sent America into an overnight frenzy when listeners mistook the reading of his work of fiction for a real-life alien attack.
It turns out that the broadcast had ties to Louisiana — beyond just the flood of panicked phone calls that Lake Charles residents made to police.
David Kent, before he owned The Louisiana Hayride, played the radio reporter on the live show announcing a spaceship landing in New Jersey. His character was the Grovers Mill correspondent, making an appearance about six minutes into the audio recording.
Upon Welles’ death in 1985, Kent talked to The Shreveport Times about the mayhem-making acting gig he scored at 15-years-old:
“It was just magnificently produced. We didn’t have the foggiest idea that people would react the way they did. The drama unfolded in about 35 minutes. There was no way Martians could have landed, Congress gone into session and the Army run here and there in 35 minutes of reality. But people got so caught up in it. Some people living along the East Coast evacuated.”
In Shreveport, listeners who heard the broadcast over KWKH flooded the station and The Times with more than 100 calls, according to an article in The Times the next day.

They said it
“This is a joke.” —Congressman Steve Scalise, R-Jefferson, on the presidential impeachment inquiry launched by House Democrats, via Twitter
For more Louisiana political news, visitwww. LaPolitics.com or follow Alford onTwitter@LaPoliticsNow

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