Jeremy Alford: School's out, but lawmakers study budget math

There’s the math inside the state budget, and then there’s the math to pass the state budget. 

Ask budget architects which fraction they fear the most in regard to the latter, and a few will likely tell you three-fourths. 

That’s the vote threshold for passing a bill that appropriates money during any special session that trails the adjournment of a term’s final regular session.

The quirky rule can be found in the Louisiana Constitution and will apply to the House and Senate should members fail to pass a budget during the regular session that adjourns in roughly two weeks.

To be certain, lawmakers have required extra time to pass budget bills in the past, but a special session this year would be an entirely different matter.

There are already difficulties involved in finding 70 votes (two-thirds) in the House during a regular session for just about anything. Now imagine trying to cobble together 79 votes (three-fourths) from the same chamber in a special session for the budget.

Legislative leaders are optimistic a deal can be struck on the budget and spending cap issue prior to sine die, or official adjournment, on June 8. Yet they also know the task will not be easy.

Where, exactly, that middle ground will be found is unknown. Both sides, for now, seem to be moving in opposite directions, but they could move back together over the issue of paying down state debt. 

Senate leaders and the Edwards Administration see a lot of value in deploying a pot of excess cash that just continues to grow, for everything from roads and bridges to deferred maintenance and, of course, debt payments.

Lawmakers went into this session knowing there was $1.9 billion in surplus funds available and now there’s another $806 million on the table. (The Revenue Estimating Conference recognized the additional money yesterday.)

Senate President Page Cortez, R-Lafayette, who’s sponsoring the resolution to bust the spending cap, is telling lawmakers the expenditure limit was created during a different era when surpluses were not the norm.

“We live in a different environment today,” he said during a speech from the Senate floor last week.

That much is evident in the House, where members of the Freedom Caucus and the Conservative Caucus have dismantled any efforts to bust the cap in the lower chamber. House conservatives, however, remain interested in paying down state debt, an area the Senate might be willing to compromise on during these closing days.

While a two-thirds vote looks possible in the Senate for cap-busting, Republicans in the House are describing their shared stance of opposition as a “once-in-a-lifetime” opportunity to implement conservative budgeting practices.

“We have what may be a once in lifetime transformational opportunity to use surplus funds to benefit our state for years,” Rep. Mike Johnson, R-Pineville, said during a recent interview. “I believe that our House is strongly in support of not exceeding the expenditure limit, paying down significant debt and controlling the growth rate of state government, while providing resources for teacher pay raises.”

The budget passed by the House deflated the teacher pay raise proposed by Gov. John Bel Edwards and kicked the task of an increase to local governments.

The House budget also kept in place state-funded priorities in early childhood education, but failed to maintain federally-funded gains.
This year, the budget is a statement. Moreover, some Republicans are treating the spending document as a proverbial line in the sand, a place where ideology trumps politics.

Echoing Johnson, House Freedom Caucus Chairman Alan Seabaugh, R-Shreveport, said, “The action taken by the Louisiana House of Representatives… is the most significant step toward fiscal responsibility in Louisiana in my lifetime.”

I’ve used the above quote from Seabaugh before in this column, but I wanted to include it once more to underscore Johnson’s comments.

Many conservatives in the House do not view this session as just another session. And they do not view this budget debate as just another budget debate.

What happens next will certainly be interesting — and it may very well help set the tone for budget negotiations during the new term of state government that begins in January.

For more Louisiana political news, visit www. LaPolitics.com or follow Alford on Twitter @ LaPoliticsNow.