Jeremy Alford: Litigation threat hangs over La. redistricting

The small details and behind-the-scenes bartering involved with redistricting are sucking the oxygen out of the Capitol. The anxiety and politics, however, may all be for nothing if the maps produced are challenged in court.
While legal challenges have long been expected, lawsuits resulting from the ongoing special session of the Louisiana Legislature now seem inevitable. Nationally, there have been at least 75 lawsuits filed over process and map disputes, meaning nearly every state that has completed redistricting is now battling multiple challenges. States like Alabama, Alaska, Michigan, Ohio and Texas have seen five or more redistricting lawsuits each.
Most notably, a federal court in Alabama recently blocked a congressional map because the lines crafted by lawmakers would have diluted the minority vote, which was crammed into a single district. The U.S. Supreme Court responded this week with a ruling that allows the map to be used for the fall elections only. Another round of oral arguments is expected later this year to determine if the redrawn lines become permanent.
Legal eagles are worried what these litigation trends could mean for Louisiana, especially as the legislative leadership gets behind maps for Louisiana that maintain the status quo. There are warning signs everywhere. For example, Chris Kaiser, the advocacy director at the ACLU of Louisiana, has already labeled the leadership’s Senate map as a violation of the Voting Rights Act. Michael Pernick, a lawyer for the NAACP Legal Defense Fund, has also raised concerns about the lack of racially-polarized voting assessments employed by the Legislature.
The courts are positioned to play an outsized role this year in Louisiana’s redistricting process, according to Joshua Stockley, a UL-Monroe political science professor who served as a consultant to lawmakers during the 2011 special session. “Based on everything I’ve seen and heard,” said Stockley, “if there are not significant revisions to the maps that look most likely to pass, there will be legal challenges. And I expect the legal challenges will come from groups internal and external to the state of Louisiana.”
He added, “I feel like we’re in an unknown era with redistricting, and that’s largely related to some of the uncertainty that remains with how the bench is going to interpret what’s left of the Voting Rights Act. The other part is the Department of Justice. Trump’s Department of Justice was unlikely to intervene in this. Biden’s Justice Department will be much more proactive and reactive to these challenges.”
Some parties didn’t want to wait until the Louisiana Legislature finished redistricting. The Fourth Circuit dismissed a suit (English v. Ardoin) last week that was filed by the Democrat-aligned National Redistricting Action Fund. It sought an early redrawing of congressional districts by the court, just in case the Legislature and Gov. John Bel Edwards couldn’t come to an agreement.
But what if there are lawsuits filed over the actual maps produced by the Legislature?
Will election officials have to put their precinct-level work on hold ahead of qualifying in July?
Would lawsuits hinder the ability of Secretary of State Kyle Ardoin to properly prepare for the fall elections?
“We trust and hope the Legislature will pass plans that are not only lawful, but won’t be challenged,” said John Tobler, deputy secretary of state for communications, when asked these questions.
“However, we will defend any actions brought about by the Legislature’s decisions.”
There are more question marks hovering over potential actions by the courts.
In the past, we’ve seen courts ask lawmakers to produce new drafts of maps.
We’ve also seen the courts appoint outside groups, like the Public Affairs Research Council, to develop new election lines following challenges.
Lawmakers intimately involved with redistricting are well aware of these political realities. That’s why attention is being given to all bills and amendments are being presented in a timely fashion.
Still, there’s no telling know what could end up in a legal challenge.
Already the legislative leadership’s nonprofit group, Leading Louisiana, has been targeted in ethics and campaign finance complaints for allegedly being a vessel for lawmakers to influence redistricting.
From legislation to litigation, this special session is going to be a doozy.
But somewhere in between, the governor will have to take a stance on all of the maps as well.
His actions, whether via veto or signature, may not be the last taken on this matter, but the governor’s decisions could reshape the legislation-to-litigation model nonetheless.
For more Louisiana political news, visit www.LaPolitics.com or follow Alford on Twitter @LaPoliticsNow.