Jeremy Alford: Lawmaker turnover could mean more R-vs.-R campaigns

Due to unexpected resignations, lawmakers seeking other offices and term limits, turnover in the Louisiana Legislature could reach as high 33% heading into January’s organizational session.

That’s substantially higher than what political observers expected at the beginning of the current term. If we looked at term limits alone, the Legislature is positioned for 15% turnover (15 exiting representatives and seven senators signing off).

Now factor in lawmakers seeking opportunities other than re-election and you’re at 27% turnover, or 40 out of 144 legislators. 

The latest to join these ranks is Speaker Pro Tem Tanner Magee, who announced his resignation last week to www.LaPoliticsWeekly.com. Citing a distaste for the “toxic stew” that keeps Capitoland nourished, Magee is now among 18 lawmakers who no longer want their current seats. (Out of fairness, a few of those folks are just trying to get to the Senate.)

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see five to 10 more lawmakers announce similar plans by the time qualifying gets here,” said John Couvillon of JMC Analytics and Polling.

If Couvillon is right, and just another eight lawmakers change their minds, that would bring turnover for the next term to 33%, an unmissable watermark in regard to recent legislative history.

Even if there are zero changes between now and qualifying, which is just 18 days away, several incumbent lawmakers have drawn substantive challenges back home.

That’s not to say this will be a cycle that bucks the comfort of incumbency, but more incumbents than usual may find themselves having to fight to keep their jobs.

Many of these incumbents are Republicans who are being challenged by fellow Republicans, a byproduct of the party’s popularity in Louisiana.

“Given the optimism of being able to serve under a conservative governor, and at a time when Republicans have super majorities in both the state Senate and state House,

it’s not surprising to see a number of R's challenging R’s,” said Kyle Ruckert of the Louisiana Committee for a Conservative Majority. “That’s a positive consequence of a conservative climate to run in. The challenge will be for Republicans to ensure voters know the good guys vs the anti-business RINOs.”

Couvillon said these R-vs.-R contests will likely become “purity battles,” pitting factional politics against factional politics.

“Is that a winning strategy?” Couvillon asked. “I’m not yet convinced. Unless you do something stupid, you’ll probably get re-elected.”

Nonetheless, an incumbent or two will likely fall, as is the case every cycle, which will in turn help the turnover rate for the next term climb even higher.

Here are a few pre-qualifying challengers to keep an eye on:

—SD33/CATHEY/INCUMBENT: Businessman Ned White has been running aggressively in this district for months and finding help from several industries, from video bingo to agriculture, in his quest to challenge Sen. Stewart Cathey.

—SD36/MILLS/INCUMBENT: Insurance agency owner Adam Bass, a Republican, has announced his candidacy. He’s the past president of the Rotary Club of Bossier City and a member of the Military Affairs Council Board of Directors.

—HD1/McCORMICK/INCUMBENT: Small business owner Randall Liles, a Republican from Blanchard, has announced he will once again run for this conservative-leaning House seat against Rep. Danny McCormick. Liles has hired consultant Jason Hebert. Liles lost to the incumbent in 2019 by 995 votes.

—HD7/BAGLEY/INCUMBENT: As expected, conservative businessman Tim Pruitt of Stonewall is in the field taking on his neighbor Rep. Larry Bagley. A Republican who owns an oil and gas consulting firm, he’s calling for a new constitution.

—HD9/HORTON/INCUMBENT: Former trooper and small business owner Chris Turner is running against Rep. Dodie Horton. (This is not Chris Turner the state representative.)

—HD24/SCHAMERHORN/INCUMBENT: The latest redistricting map will change this district significantly, and in the process introduce a new slate of candidates, like Hornbeck Mayor Clarence Beebe, who announced his plans to run against Rep. Rodney Schamerhorn on local radio.

—HD31/GOUDEAU/INCUMBENT: Regional Vice President of Latter and Blum Troy Hebert is running against Rep. Jonathan Goudeau. (This is not Troy Hebert the former legislator.)

—HD90/DuBUISSON/INCUMBENT: Attorney Brian Glorioso is generating a lot of buzz in the Slidell area for his candidacy opposite Rep. Mary DuBuisson. Glorioso last ran unsuccessfully against the incumbent in 2018. Heidi Alejandro-Smith, chair of the Louisiana Libertarian Party, is also running.

—HD91/LANDRY/INCUMBENT: After dropping her Democratic Party registration and having no party affiliation before switching back to Democrat, Rep. Mandie Landry has fielded a challenge from Madison O’Malley, a small business owner and a fellow Democrat. O’Malley announced when Landry first switched to independent. ”Our district — one of the bluest in the state — deserves an unwavering and effective Democrat to represent us,” O’Malley said in a statement.

—HD105/CORMIER/INCUMBENT: After running unsuccessfully for the Senate, during which she further built name recognition, Joanna Cappiello-Leopold is being encouraged by local influencers to take on Rep. Mack Cormier. Friends say she’s leaning towards a bid. Her husband, former Rep. Chris Leopold, previously held the seat.

For more Louisiana political news, visit www. LaPolitics.com or follow Alford on Twitter @ LaPoliticsNow.