Jeremy Alford: Candidates jockey for position in governor's race

There are three important areas of inquiry worth exploring at this hour in Louisiana’s developing race for governor:

1.) How strong will former Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson run in the primary? Will he weigh in at 30%? How about 40%? Either way, Wilson — the leading Democrat in a field with no other notable Democrats — will likely finish in first place.

2.) Can Republicans unite behind a single candidate when there are (so far) five recognizable names? I think we all know the answer to that question, which brings us to our final and possibly most important area of inquiry…

3.) If Republicans are unable to unite, just how bloody will the resulting civil war be in the coming months? 

A division inside Louisiana’s congressional delegation is possible. Stephen Waguespack, the former president of the Louisiana Association of Business and Industry, has close relationships with both Congressman Garret Graves and Congresswoman Julia Letlow. Attorney General Jeff Landry, meanwhile, certainly has the ears of Congressmen Clay Higgins and Mike Johnson. 

This latest contest for governor is also dividing the donor class, which is nothing new. But it is unique to see donors suddenly abandoning their behind-the-scenes roles for press releases and prepared statements to reporters.

Donors are so engaged this go around that they’re willingly part of the public narrative.

These elevated profiles can best be viewed in Camp Landry, where Boysie Bollinger and Joe Canizaro have made full-throated endorsements.

Fellow mega-donors Lane Grigsby and Eddie Rispone, who have been with Landry since day one but are friendly with Waguespack, have also appeared regularly in The Advocate’s coverage.

Then there’s the Louisiana Republican Party, which has taken fire for allowing an early and uncontested endorsement of Landry.

At a time when all political parties are losing relevance due to the outsized spending of super PACs and other organizations, the state GOP leadership is being questioned at the highest levels. 

Three high-ranking Republicans in the race — Sen. Sharon Hewitt, Rep. Richard Nelson and Treasurer John Schroder — have complained about how the endorsement process was handled. A long line of others have used stronger language.

You may not be able to clearly see it now, but in the coming months the state party’s role in electioneering and issues management will become a red-hot issue. A lot of the action will happen outside the orbit of the governor’s race, but the resulting controversies could further fan the flames of division on the right.    

Among Louisiana’s religious leaders, there are some of the same lingering questions about picking sides in this race. While many pastors are familiar and friendly with Landry, Pentecostals in particular have an option with trial attorney Hunter Lundy, an independent. He’s visiting churches, raising money and carrying a message those voters like. 

Whether Lundy is able to carve support off of Landry remains to be seen, but Lundy is proof that faith-based voters have options this year.

For his part, Waguespack is unlikely to ignore this sector of the electorate, and many pastors are expecting an appeal from the business leader. 

In anticipation of Waguespack’s faith-based push, operatives are already meeting with church leaders to share a political message: “We don’t want a big industry stamp on state government at the cost of the family.”

Some of these divides may feel familiar and do shape up along old schisms that were created by the folks who worked for former Gov. Bobby Jindal (Waguespack’s old boss) and those who were in the trenches with former U.S. Sen. David Vitter (some of which who are with Landry).

While the Jindal-Vitter battles of yesteryear were part of a political cold war that rarely made headlines, this latest incarnation is anything but quiet.  

There may be an argument to make about the divisions being similar to the Republican challenges of 2019, when Rispone and former Congressman Ralph Abraham ran for governor.

That argument, however, feels a little loose.

Rispone was one of the most prolific self-funders in modern politics, so there wasn’t all of the donor intrigue that we’re seeing now.

More importantly, donors and associations had the luxury of sitting on the sidelines until the runoff in 2019.

Even Graves waited to engage with that race four years ago.

Another difference over four years ago was the number of strong candidates. Aside from Rispone and Abraham, there were no other contenders to speak of, not counting also-rans.

This year you have five marketable Republicans and an Independent who could potentially be a spoiler candidate. 

This race for governor will be unique, and it has all of the makings for a civil war on the Republican side. 

Four years ago, when Gov. John Bel Edwards was seeking a second term, Republicans were hungry to return to the Governor’s Mansion.

Now they’re starving and ready to fight — even if it means fighting themselves.

For more Louisiana political news, visit www. LaPolitics.com or follow Alford on Twitter @ LaPoliticsNow