Jeremy Alford and David Jacobs: Will Harris affect local La. politics?

Just two weeks ago, President Joe Biden’s quest to hold the White House appeared to be, if not a lost cause, at least trending in that direction.
Democrats were starting to panic. Many worried the lack of enthusiasm at the top of the ticket would lead to a bloodbath all over the ballot. 
Biden’s decision not to run for re-election, followed by Vice President Kamala Harris quickly taking his place, “injects rocket fuel on the Democratic side,” said Albert Samuels, who chairs the political science department at Southern University.
The party needs that enthusiasm, he said, particularly among young voters. “Some people just weren’t excited about a race between two old white guys,” Samuels said. “That can have a spillover effect on these down-ballot races.” 
Almost 40,000 Americans registered to vote in the 48 hours after Biden suspended his campaign and endorsed Harris, 83 percent of whom were people aged 18 to 34, according to Vote.org. That’s the most we’ve seen this cycle for a two-day period, and the timing suggests most of those voters lean Democrat. 
Will it matter in Louisiana? Samuels is doubtful, and most of the folks interviewed for this column agree. Nonetheless, elections are unique events capable of unscheduled surprises.
At the very least, Democratic activists here have cause for enthusiasm, for the first time in a while. That, in turn, could produce some ripple effects in contests well below the top of the ballot.
Louisiana is solidly in the column of former President Donald Trump, and no one here thinks a Democrat from California will move that needle.
“If Louisiana had statewide elections... [Harris] could make a difference,” said Dillard University professor and Fox 8 political pundit Robert Collins, adding that running on the same ballot as Harris would have guaranteed former Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson a spot in 2023 gubernatorial runoff. “But since our state elections are off-year elections, it won’t make a difference.” 
Harris’ candidacy could boost Democratic turnout in congressional races, noted Public Service Commissioner Davante Lewis. That may give extra comfort to supporters of Congressman Troy Carter and state Sen. Cleo Fields in Louisiana’s two Black-majority districts.
“Though most Louisiana voters understand that their vote for Harris won’t secure Louisiana’s electoral votes for the presumptive Democratic nominee, it certainly provides incentive to vote, and to vote down ballot as well,” said consultant Mary-Patricia Wray of Top Drawer Strategies, who’s working for the Fields campaign.
That turnout bump for congressional races could be important in certain local contests. For example, Lewis pointed to a seat on the Baton Rouge-based Court of Appeal, where Kelly Balfour, a white male Republican, is facing Eboni Johnson Rose, a Black female Democrat.
Where things get really interesting is in the East Baton Rouge race for mayor-president, which could become the most closely-watched Louisiana election this cycle. 
Current Mayor Sharon Weston Broome is running in a crowded field that includes Ted James, a well-funded former state lawmaker who also happens to be a fellow Black Democrat.
So far, the conventional wisdom is that most Black voters in EBR are “sticking with Sharon,” Lewis said, which means higher Black turnout could benefit the incumbent. 
On the other hand, James has a personal relationship with Harris and served as Louisiana co-chair for her 2019 presidential campaign. 
“It’s exciting for me personally,” James said, adding he would have a line to the White House if she wins. “I consider her a friend. When I was in the hospital with COVID, she called me every single day.” 
Consultant Kristine Breithaupt predicted rising Democratic turnout will benefit Democrat incumbents, including Carter and Broome, who are her clients.
“I’ve never seen Democrats fall in line so efficiently in my life,” she said. “The enthusiasm is electric, especially with Gen Z voters flooding social media with grassroots content.” 
All of this presupposes Democrats have the right to swap out their presidential candidate after the primaries are over. Speaker Mike Johnson has suggested Republicans will mount a long-shot effort to challenge the move, at least in certain jurisdictions. 
“Every state has its own system,” Johnson told ABC News, “and in some of these, it’s not possible to simply just switch out a candidate.”
Louisiana does not appear to be one of those states where the switch would be problematic. Joel Watson with Secretary of State Nancy Landry’s office said their team just needs the nominee’s name by 4:30 p.m. on Aug. 23 — the day after the Democratic National Convention concludes — to have it on the November ballot. 
Of course, presidential elections have the highest turnout. While 2020 was the overall high-water mark in Louisiana, Black turnout was higher for former President Barack Obama’s two wins. 
To participate in the November election in Louisiana, the deadline to register in person or by mail is Oct. 7, though you can register online through Oct. 15. Early voting is Oct. 18 through Oct. 29 (excluding Sundays) from 8:30 a.m. until 6 p.m.
For more Louisiana political news, visit www. LaPolitics.com or follow Alford on Twitter @ LaPoliticsNow.