Jeremy Alford and David Jacobs: Washington, not Baton Rouge, may steer House redistricting

Legislative leaders put a new spin on the three-year legal saga over Louisiana’s congressional map last week, asking members to keep their calendars flexible for a possible special session this fall. 
Does that mean the Louisiana Legislature will redraw the map for the second year in a row? Not necessarily, and even if they do, the rules of the game will be dictated in Washington, D.C., not in Baton Rouge. 
“There’s a lot of hurry up, and then wait and see, because there are so many unknowns,” said House and Governmental Affairs Chair Beau Beaullieu. 
Lawmakers adopted the current map with two majority-minority districts in a special session last year. Attorney General Liz Murrill’s office already has defended that map once at the U.S. Supreme Court. 
But instead of issuing a ruling, the Supremes have asked participants to prepare new arguments about “whether the State’s intentional creation of a second majority-minority congressional district violates the Fourteenth or Fifteenth Amendments to the U. S. Constitution.” Re-argument is scheduled for Oct. 15. 
The court could rule right away, they could wait until the end of the current term this summer, or issue a ruling sometime in between. If the justices provide immediate clarity, Gov. Jeff Landry could call a session that starts on Oct. 23 or so to allow legislators to draw a new map before the holidays, and before congressional candidates qualify for next year’s races in January. Legislators might also draw contingency maps that could be enacted when the court’s decision eventually is handed down.  
“You’ve got to be fair to the people that are running,” Senate and Governmental Affairs Chair Caleb Kleinpeter said. “We have closed primaries that are supposed to be in April and May.” 
The main (read: Landry-backed) bill would come out of Beaullieu’s or Kleinpeter’s committee; no decisions have been made about which chamber would take the lead. 
“We want to go back to a 5-1 [Republican] map,” Kleinpeter said, most likely with a Democratic-leaning Black-majority district that ties New Orleans and Baton Rouge together. 
“We have to look at the numbers,” he added. “First it has to be a compact district, and then the population plays a factor as well.”
Congressman Cleo Fields, who represents the new majority-minority district, argued that it’s too soon to even discuss a redistricting session when the matter is still before the courts. 
“Don’t put the cart before the horse,” he said. “I think this is Donald Trump’s play, quite frankly, to get as many Republican seats as he can.”
Trump has been pushing red states to redraw their districts to bolster the narrow U.S. House GOP majority ahead of the midterms. Democrats are discussing similar plans to counter those efforts in their states. 
House Speaker Phillip DeVillier said he did not discuss Louisiana’s congressional map with White House officials when a delegation of Republican state officials visited two weeks ago. Senate President Cameron Henry did not respond to a text asking the same question. 
Though Fields, a Democrat, has a good relationship with Republican Gov. Landry, the two have not discussed the potential for a special session, Fields said. Fields was in the state Senate when the Legislature approved the new map, but his preferred option did not win the day. 
The map the Black Caucus favored would have created a second minority district that cut into the area Congresswoman Julia Letlow currently represents. Legislators decided to protect the state’s lone Appropriations Committee member over Garret Graves, who was out of favor politically. 
That same map, which featured a more compact minority district, could in theory be dusted off and debated again if the current map is tossed. Though how viable it would be might depend on why the court invalidates the current map. 
The way the court has framed the question for October’s arguments suggests they are preparing to throw out Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. For decades, states like Louisiana have sought to comply with Section 2 by creating majority-minority congressional districts. 
But it’s also possible that the court upholds Section 2 while still invalidating Louisiana’s current map, reasoning that lawmakers leaned too heavily on race at the expense of traditional redistricting principles such as compactness. In that world, advocates and lawmakers who favor a second minority district have a much stronger hand. 
“If the Supreme Court says that Section 2 is valid, but that the way that this map was drawn doesn’t meet the standard, then we can draw the original map that I think all of us preferred,” said Rep. Edmond Jordan, who chairs the Legislative Black Caucus. 
But on the other hand, if Section 2 no longer applies and Congress doesn’t pass legislation that replaces Section 2 in some form, “then I think everybody’s district is in jeopardy,” he said. By “everybody,” he means representatives of majority-minority districts nationwide, including Congressman Troy Carter. 
From here, we drift further into speculation land. Letlow has yet to rule out her interest in U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy’s seat, or the open LSU president’s job, though a crowded field has assembled for the former and McNeese President Wade Rousse is widely thought to be the favorite for the latter gig. 
If Republicans hold onto their majority, or even expand it with help from Trump’s redistricting push, Letlow could continue to wield power from her safe seat with a perch on the Appropriations Committee.
But if the Legislature or the courts mess with her district, going all-in for the Senate may look more attractive. 
For Landry, adding another seat to the Republican tally allows him to join Trump’s redistricting parade. That would be ironic, since many conservatives say he gave up on the old 5-1 map far too quickly. 
And if Landry does issue a special session call, will it be limited to redistricting? Remember that when he called for a tax-focused special session last fall, he also threw in other topics, such as vocational education and abandoned oil wells. 
Landry already has threatened to call lawmakers back to Baton Rouge to address pharmacy benefit managers. And after the Orleans Parish jailbreak in May, he suggested more changes to Louisiana’s criminal justice system could be in order. 
Legislators may prefer a narrowly tailored call. But Landry is not the sort of politician to pass up an opportunity to advance his agenda.
A Landry spokesperson did not respond to an email asking for comment.
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