Jeremy Alford and David Jacobs: Senate race defined by what we don't know

By JEREMY ALFORD and DAVID JACOBS
Whatever you may think about the substance of the issue, U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy made a risky political bet on Feb. 13, 2021, when he voted to convict Donald Trump in his second impeachment trial. 
After the violence that unfolded on Jan. 6 of that year, and the release of a recording of Trump trying to pressure Georgia officials to change vote totals in his favor, perhaps Cassidy was willing to gamble that Trump’s political career was over.
Whatever the reasons, that wager certainly didn’t pan out.
Trump is very much still around — and as we look ahead to April’s Republican primary, all eyes and ears are on the president. There are also lingering questions about the rest of the GOP field, what Democrats will do and how voters will respond to the new closed primary system.
Is Cassidy toast? 
Writing off an incumbent U.S. senator with an effectively bottomless war chest would be reckless. He has a lot of support in his home base of Baton Rouge and from chamber of commerce types. 
But rival politicos say their polling puts him underwater among Republicans.
Even one poll that Team Cassidy released back in May when State Treasurer John Fleming was the only major declared opponent had Cassidy below 50%, which is not encouraging for an incumbent. 
Cassidy endorsed Jeff Landry’s bid for governor, but rather than reciprocating, Landry has urged Congresswoman Julia Letlow to enter the fray.
This week, Landry and Cassidy got into a public spat over COVID vaccines. 
Still, Cassidy will point to a track record of delivering results for the folks back home.
And setting aside that one, glaring exception, he has been a loyal foot soldier for Trump’s agenda and worked hard to highlight that fact. 
“I still think Cassidy has a good shot,” said Pearson Cross, who teaches and writes about politics and directs the School of Behavioral and Social Sciences at UL-Monroe. 
If Cassidy makes the party runoff (no sure thing), whoever he faces will have to raise a lot of money to compete, Cross said. 
“I would think that if you can’t raise $4 million-$5 million, you can’t really be a legitimate candidate,” he said.
What will Trump do? 
Trump has endorsed at least 16 Republicans who are running for Senate next year, including 14 incumbents. U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, who has clashed with Trump, is on the list, but you-know-who is not. 
Obviously, a Trump endorsement would dramatically alter the dynamics of the race.
The recent conventional wisdom is that he will stay out of it, at least in the near term, and maybe altogether, though high-ranking Senate Republicans reportedly have urged the president to back Cassidy. 
“Of course I prefer his endorsement, but if it’s not an endorsement, neutral is probably the next best thing,” Cassidy told Politico. 
Trump could probably bury Cassidy for good with Republicans if he wanted to, but making an enemy of a sitting senator who has backed him consistently would be risky. Stringing Cassidy along is likely the safer play. 
While Trump could be a “kingmaker” in the race, Cross expects him to keep his powder dry for now. 
“I would be surprised if he picked somebody in the first round,” he said. “I think it’s more likely that he would jump in and make a pick after the primary.”
What’s Letlow thinking? 
Some Republican insiders think the congresswoman would be the favorite if she got in.
While her voting record and support for Trump put her right in line with most Louisiana Republicans, her calm, personable demeanor could appeal to voters and donors wary of a fire-breathing MAGA disciple, some say. 
But there’s also some frustration with the way Letlow seems to be leaning toward a run without actually making it official.
Does she really want to do this?
And does she have it in her to go hard after Cassidy, as the other declared candidates already are? 
To be fair, Letlow has a safe seat (at least under the current map), and she sits on the powerful Appropriations Committee, so she has far more to lose than anyone else currently in the mix. 
“Maybe Letlow is saying, 'Llook, if y’all want me to run, I need Donald Trump’s endorsement,'” said Bob Mann, an author, political scholar and former staffer for top Louisiana Democrats.
“'I’m not doing it unless I’ve got Trump behind me 100 percent.'”
But as noted above, if she’s waiting for a nod from Trump, she could miss her opportunity. 
Letlow could be Cassidy’s “worst nightmare” because of her gender, said pollster Bernie Pinsonat, who believes Cassidy has no shot with the “far-right MAGAs.”
Among Republican-leaning voters, Trump is weakest with women, so Cassidy will have to dominate the white female demographic to have a chance, he said. 
What will the GOP field look like? 
Along with Treasurer Fleming, the high-profile candidates are Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta and Sen. Blake Miguez.
House Ways and Means Chair Julie Emerson is gearing up to run if Letlow doesn’t jump in before next month, so we’ll likely have at least one woman in the field. 
Among the outsiders, Sammy Wyatt, chief compliance and risk management officer for LSU Health Shreveport, has made the most noise, though he only reported a little more than $22,000 on hand at the end of the last fundraising quarter. 
Fleming reported about $2.1 million on hand, compared to $1.7 million for Miguez, with both putting up significant personal investments. Skrmetta, the most recent entrant, has not yet filed a federal campaign report. 
Of course, no one is officially in the race until they qualify in January. 
What about the Democrats? 
Former Gov. John Bel Edwards is the only Democrat who scares anyone on the Republican side, but he is unlikely to run and would be an underdog if he did.
Sen. Jay Luneau has at least looked at the race, but no high-profile Democrats have jumped in yet. 
How will the new primary
system affect the race? 
Cassidy, as a Republican who is palatable to moderates, is well-suited for the open, nonpartisan primary.
But under the new system Louisiana adopted for congressional races, he will have to survive at least one, and possibly two, party primaries. 
The GOP primary electorate will be much smaller and more conservative that what you would find in a jungle primary, which looks daunting for Cassidy.
And the massive cash advantage the incumbent will have might not matter as much, since the chronic voters likely to participate in a party primary can be reached with more targeted, less expensive methods than TV. 
As a reminder, the party primaries will be in April, followed by party runoffs if needed in May and the general election in November.
Candidates who are not a member of either major party, and are able to complete a nominating petition before January, can skip the primaries and go right to the general.
In theory, if Cassidy really wanted to throw everyone a curve ball, he could run as an independent and avoid the MAGA primary altogether.
He recently grilled Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. over the secretary’s anti-vaccine views, while going out of his way to credit Trump for his administration’s efforts to develop the COVID vaccine. 
But if getting tough on Kennedy is an effort to ingratiate himself with the administration’s critics, it doesn’t erase the fact that Cassidy cast the swing vote to advance Kennedy’s nomination in February. 
“I think that strategy was viable six months ago, but I don’t think it is anymore,” Mann said.
For more Louisiana political news, visit www. LaPolitics.com or follow Alford on X @ LaPoliticsNow.