Jeremy Alford and David Jacobs: La.'s U.S. Senate race is on a fast track

As U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy faces what may be one of the most important votes of his political career in Washington, state Treasurer John Fleming is back home building a challenge and seeking an early endorsement from the Louisiana Republican Party for his bid against the incumbent in 2026. 
Fleming is following the playbook of Gov. Jeff Landry, who got the nod from party leaders nearly a year before his own election. (While other contenders blasted the decision by party leaders, it worked out for Landry, who cruised to an easy first-ballot win.)
State GOP Chair Derek Babcock said Fleming is free to seek the early endorsement. So far, Babcock hasn’t received many endorsement letters from members, but that could change. 
“A lot of people I’ve talked to, their sense is that they want to wait and see how the field lines up, and let the closed primary be the endorsement,” Babcock said. 
The biggest question mark is hanging over the head of Cassidy, the chairman of the Senate health committee and possibly the swing confirmation vote for Robert Kennedy Jr., the man President Donald Trump wants to be health secretary.
Cassidy has expressed concerns over Kennedy’s stance on vaccines and other matters, but the senator also knows he’s facing a daunting re-election cycle in a state that wants Trump to succeed. 
“Let’s get political,” Cassidy acknowledged during a confirmation hearing Thursday. “I represent the great state of Louisiana.”
Both Gov. Landry and Congressman Clay Higgins, who is being urged to run against the senator, have asked Cassidy to support Kennedy. Higgins has likewise repeatedly labeled Cassidy as vulnerable, but hasn’t said much else about an actual campaign for the upper chamber.
For now, the governor isn’t taking sides. Landry hasn’t endorsed Cassidy’s re-election, and he doesn’t seem interested in Fleming’s appeal to the state GOP. President Trump is quiet as well, surely knowing he can either reward Cassidy for delivering his health secretary pick, or back Fleming (or another candidate) should Cassidy step out of line.
Fleming, however, is currently the only announced challenger to Cassidy. Sen. Blake Miguez, who declined to comment for this story, is widely known to be considering a run. Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta is thought to be another possible candidate.
The growing speculation only intensified during Washington Mardi Gras last month, as revelers at the 65th Parish bar swapped rumors about former governors joining the mix. Former Gov. Bobby Jindal might be looking at the race, according to the scuttlebutt, though a source close to Jindal said that rumor isn’t true. 
When it comes to the Democrats, perhaps the one name that would make Republicans raise an eyebrow is former Gov. John Bel Edwards. While the former governor has given no indication that he has any interest in the race, high-ranking Dems at Washington Mardi Gras said gentle pleas are being made.
As a result, all eyes are on Fleming.
A State Central Committee endorsement with the primary more than a year away could provide a major boost for Fleming’s fundraising and his effort to be the prime not-Cassidy candidate in the race. But some insiders say the move could backfire, arguing that trying and failing to secure the endorsement could tarnish the treasurer’s candidacy. 
For party leaders, the theoretical benefit of an early endorsement would be avoiding a bruising primary that leaves the GOP candidate wounded in the general election. 
“The concern I think all Republicans have is that we have another scenario, such as we had in both of John Bel Edwards’ races, where you had Republicans beating up Republicans,” Fleming said. “And so we elect someone that would otherwise be unlikely to be elected.”
Fleming was able to secure the RSCC endorsement in his race for treasurer, and he views his current effort in the same light. 
“I think once you announce, you should try to acquire as many endorsements as you can,” he said.
Consultant Roy Fletcher, who is working with Fleming on the race, doesn’t see any downside in the endorsement attempt. If committee members aren’t ready to make an endorsement, that’s not a rejection of Fleming as a candidate, he said. 
LaPolitics readers are probably familiar with the dynamics at play, but to make it explicit: Incumbent senators like Cassidy are usually hard to beat, and he will have a well-stocked war chest for the campaign.
His team says he raised another $1 million across his reelection, leadership and joint fundraising committees in the fourth quarter of 2024, bringing his campaign cash on hand to more than $6.5 million. 
But his vote to convict President Trump drew an official rebuke from the GOP, and party activists remember Cassidy’s perceived heresy. While Cassidy might have been a heavy favorite under the open primary system, he could be vulnerable in the closed party primary lawmakers adopted last year for congressional races. 
Asked how a party endorsement could tie into fundraising, Babcock said the National Republican Senatorial Committee recently sent him a joint fundraising agreement contract that he was in the process of looking over. While NRSC fundraising typically would be for incumbent protection, the contract did not appear to designate any particular candidates, he said.
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