Jeremy Alford and David Jacobs: Election schedule change creates unknown

Voters, candidates and elections officials are adjusting to the new party primary system that will be in place for some of next year’s elections, headlined by the high-profile fight over U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy’s re-election. 
The new schedule lawmakers established in the special session, essentially pushing everything back by a month, adds one more wrinkle, though it’s not obvious what the impact will be.
“I don’t think anybody really knows,” said Greg Buisson, who is managing Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta’s U.S. Senate campaign. “I think it’s going to be a lot of us playing Monday morning quarterback after this next cycle and trying to figure out how it impacted the election, if it impacts it at all.”
For Buisson, the main concern is confusion for voters who already will navigate a new system. 
“Every time you switch an election date, it could chip away at public trust, it could chip away at voter turnout,” he said. “We just don’t know if people are going to remember when the race is.” 
Asked if the schedule change is likely to benefit incumbents or insurgents, Jason Hebert, a prominent Republican strategist, said it could cut both ways. 
Take Cassidy, for example. He has an effectively bottomless campaign war chest, and an extra month before the GOP primary gives him more time to flood the zone with paid media. 
“But it also gives other candidates an extra month to raise money,” Hebert said, adding that he didn’t think the change would make races significantly more expensive. 
Chris Comeaux, who is managing Ways and Means Chair Julie Emerson’s U.S. Senate campaign, said their polling suggests Cassidy’s campaign is hopeless, even with the extra month.
But for a candidate like her who got a later start than her main rivals, the extra time to establish her candidacy and raise money could be beneficial, he said. 
Treasurer John Fleming, who also is challenging Cassidy, said he didn’t think a one-month shift changes the dynamics significantly for his race or any others. 
Cassidy’s campaign manager Katie Larkin said the senator “has the support, resources, and momentum to win whatever race is in front of him” to win another term. 
As for the possible voter confusion, Secretary of State Nancy Landry’s closed party primary education plan is ongoing, so that process will continue with the new dates, explained Joel Watson with Landry’s office.
Her team also will be doing outreach through earned and paid media, social media and speaking events. 
“Our office has dealt with election date changes before, most recently in 2020 and 2021, so we’ve got experience on educating the public on election date changes,” he said, adding that costs associated with changing the schedule are minimal and will be absorbed in the office’s existing budget. 
Vernon Parish Clerk of Court Jeff Skidmore, who is president of the state association, doesn’t expect the change will be a big deal on the local level.
He will begin training election commissioners next month, so the new schedule is just one more piece of information to impact. 
However, the schedule change is likely to create some logistical challenges. For example, many high schools in rural parishes hold their May proms in their gyms, which also are popular voting locations, notes Lafayette Parish Clerk of Court Louis Perret. 
“It does create uncertainty for everyone,” he said.
“And I’m not sure that the Legislature fully comprehended Einstein’s theory that for every action, there’s an equal and opposite reaction.”
The Secretary of State’s Office has been working with local election officials, who have been reaching out to polling locations to ensure they can be used on the new dates, Watson said, adding that voters will be notified of any polling place changes. 
Party primaries were moved from April 18 to May 16, while party runoffs have been pushed from May 30 to June 27.
Candidate qualifying will open Feb. 11 instead of Jan. 14. 
Along with Congress, races on the May ballot with party primaries will include the Louisiana Supreme Court and the Public Service Commission, and maybe a special election for the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education. 
It’s worth noting that pushing the elections back a month only helps lawmakers if the Supreme Court issues a ruling on the state’s contested congressional map next month.
If the Supremes take longer than that, they’ll have to figure out Plan B, which might involve compressing the schedule further or even eliminating party primaries and sticking with an open primary for this cycle.
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