John Flores: Waterfowl season preview -- what you see is what you get

For the past two years, due to COVID-19 and its family of variants, the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service’s Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey has been canceled. The survey, which up until last year was conducted every year since 1955, is the most definitive wildlife study conducted in the world. Its information, when compiled, becomes the vital framework that flyway biologists use to set seasons and manage waterfowl in the United States and Canada.
In 1995 the USF&WS established Adaptive Harvest Management, which became the structure for decision making when it came to setting flyway-specific seasons, bag limits and dates.
AHM took into consideration four uncertainties across the landscape when regulating waterfowl harvest. Those four things were environmental variation, partial controllability, partial observability, and structural uncertainty.
The annual change in pond numbers would be an example of environmental variation. Hunter participation, weather conditions, and timing of the migration are things that relate to partial controllability. Estimating accurately waterfowl populations is the key to partial observability.
Structural uncertainty is trying to understand whether duck harvest is additive to other sources of waterfowl mortality or do populations compensate for the hunting losses. This uncertainty is perhaps the most debatable of the four inputs to AHM.
Ultimately, what all this science and jargon boils down to is whether waterfowl hunters will see a restrictive, moderate, or liberal season.
For the past 27 years, including this year, Louisiana duck hunters have had liberal 60-day seasons with 6 duck bag limits.
You only have to go back one year to realize something is wrong. A year ago, the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries aerial survey estimated 855,000 ducks, which was the lowest November estimate since the survey began in 1969.
This week I reached out to my waterfowl hunting friends on Facebook asking them what they are seeing duck-wise. Waterfowl season opens Saturday for youth and veterans only in the West Zone, which encompasses much of coastal Louisiana, including St. Mary Parish.
There was nothing scientific about my request. I knew it would be all anecdotal. But, I felt it would be interesting to know what the guys were seeing leading up to the opener and how it will compare to the LDWF aerial survey, when it’s flown next week.
Bill Lake of Houma said, “No ducks on my lease!”
Hunter Andras of Chackbay said, “Comparable numbers to last year, which isn’t the greatest.”
Bubba Charpentier of Franklin said, “I saw a few flocks of ducks flying around Indian Creek this past week. Too far to tell what they were, but I think it was probably some divers.”
Brent Sawyer of Jennings said, “Good numbers of ducks in isolated places in southwest Louisiana. Some geese in the area. Again, isolated locations.”
Ty Barbier of Thibodaux said, “Marshes north of Venice holding substantial amounts of birds. Mostly Blue-winged Teal — big birds definitely starting to show up.”
Dale Bordelon of Avoyelles Parish said, “Saw several bunches while brushing duck blinds last Saturday.”
Mike Hepler of Morgan City said, “I’d bet a lot of money we ain’t gonna kill much this season. Lowest numbers I’ve ever seen in our area. But, it may work out good for us and kill the pressure.”
Aaron Snatic of Elizabeth said, “Saw two small flocks of specks and heard a group of high snows on Saturday when finishing up work on blind in Central Louisiana.”
Jeff Benhard of Palmetto said, “Specks are definitely moving into south Louisiana. I hear them every night and have seen quite a few between Crowley and Creole.”
Jack Cousin of Gueydan said, “We’re starting to see some geese for sure and we still have a lot of rice that hasn’t been cut yet. Duck-wise we still have some Blue Winged Teal around and some Mottled Ducks. We’ll see what it’s going to be like this weekend when the goose season opens.”
This was just a sample of my anecdotal Facebook survey. Essentially, it doesn’t reflect anything that would make you want to run out and buy a few extra boxes of steel shot.
What’s interesting is the early teal season back in September was pretty darn good across the state for both private and public land duck hunters. But, Blue Winged Teal are a species, along with Northern Shovelers that migrate early and seem to move when the days start getting shorter.
The biggest concern this year isn’t biologists making flyway decisions based essentially on “no data” the last two years, it’s the severe drought up on the prairie pothole regions of the upper Midwest and Canada.
The “Late-Summer 2021 Waterfowl Production Outlook,” prepared by Ducks Unlimited, stated the prairie pothole country of southwestern Manitoba remained in the grips of severe drought, with many wetlands showing exposed mudflats completely dry. For north-central U.S. the outlook stated wetland conditions continued to deteriorate across the Great Plains states, with much of the eastern Dakotas and northeastern Montana experiencing extreme or exceptional drought.
Other regions in the outlook reportedly were fair or marginal with some duck production expected. Nonetheless, there is a reason the prairie pothole is called the “duck factory.”
Every duck hunter knows what’s happening on the prairie with respect to farming practices and the impact that ethanol has had, where farmers are no longer applying for Conservation Reserve Program grants. They also know that winters, due to climate change, have been less severe.
Essentially, ducks and geese are obligate species and where there’s available food, open water, and little pressure, they aren’t in any hurry to migrate further south.
The question is, why is the USF&WS setting yet another liberal duck season during severe drought and two years of little to no data?
With low duck production this year, every hen that is shot during the 60-day 6 duck liberal season will mean one less bird returning to the breeding grounds next year.
What’s more, no one knows how long the current drought is going to last.
It may be time for the USF&WS to evaluate how they’ve been managing waterfowl. But, for the upcoming season, what duck hunters see is in all likelihood what they’re going to get.