Jeremy Alford: Landry tax reforms are big, but work remains unfinished
Even if you disagree with everything they did, or believe they tried to do too much too quickly, it’s hard to argue against the premise that Gov. Jeff Landry and the Legislature accomplished a lot in the tax-focused special session.
But at the same time, the work is unfinished. In March, voters will decide whether to make the most significant changes to the state constitution since the document was enacted in 1974.
So what’s the plan to get that amendment passed? Brent Littlefield, Landry’s longtime political advisor, isn’t saying.
“I’m not going to preview my campaign strategy,” he said. “We will be selling it… We already have resources at our disposal. We’ll be doing more [fundraising].”
On the surface, it doesn’t seem like a tough sell. Of the parts of Landry’s package that passed, the sales tax hike is the hardest pill to swallow, but that’s already been done through statute.
Here’s what voters will see on the March 29 ballot: “Do you support an amendment to revise Article VII of the Constitution of Louisiana including revisions to lower the maximum rate of income tax, increase income tax deductions for citizens over sixty-five, provide for a government growth limit, modify operation of certain constitutional funds, provide for property tax exemptions retaining the homestead exemption and exemption for religious organizations, provide a permanent teacher salary increase by requiring a surplus payment to teacher retirement debt, and make other modifications?”
The ballot language seems tailor-made to appeal, not just to voters, but to the older, more conservative electorate that’s likely to turn out for a March election. “Retaining the homestead exemption” is paramount for many voters, for example. And who wants to vote against “a permanent teacher salary increase,” even if “making a current salary stipend permanent” might be more accurate?
Still, Landry, and the lawmakers who voted for the package, have a lot invested in the outcome, so they don’t want to take passage for granted.
“Obviously, Gov. Landry and/or any supportive PACs will need to advertise fairly heavily and not leave anything to chance,” said pollster John Couvillon, envisioning a wide-reaching campaign that includes TV, radio and digital.
Regardless of the details, major tax changes can make people nervous, Couvillon said, and uncertainty alone can be enough to sink an amendment. The March election will include numerous local races (such as for mayor of Lake Charles), along with special elections for the Legislature and state Supreme Court, so there’s always a chance that some voters will drop off as they move down the ballot.
The campaign could easily carry a seven-figure price tag if supporters are willing and able to do big TV buys. But consultant Mary-Patricia Wray said TV and radio campaigns, when you don’t know who’s getting the message, carry the risk of motivating potential voters who don’t support what you’re trying to do.
The first step, she said, would be to do the polling necessary to figure out whether you even need to be on TV, or whether a more targeted approach will suffice. For example, you would be “crazy” not to send mailers to households with chronic voters over the age of 65.
Wray added that the campaign could be seen as an opportunity for reputational enhancement, not just for Landry but for the lawmakers who backed the package. A state rep who voted for it might be tempted to spend some of their own campaign funds to raise their profile.
Supporters certainly shouldn’t neglect meeting with local chambers and Kiwanis Clubs and the like, because those folks tend to be chronic voters and influential in their communities. Wray was involved in the successful 2018 push for a constitutional amendment to ban nonunanimous jury convictions, and she said media reports indicating that groups across the political spectrum supported the change made a big difference.
“I always think earned media is your best friend in a campaign like this,” she said, adding that she expects things to start ramping up in early February once everyone gets back from Washington Mardi Gras.
At this point, it’s still unclear who will be involved in the fight, for or against. Local leaders likely could have killed the plan in its crib, but their concerns largely were addressed during session.
And even politically engaged folks don’t necessarily fully understand yet what the amendment purports to do. HB 7, the amendment legislation by House Ways and Means Chair Julie Emerson, runs 115 pages.
“I defy you to find a single legislator who can completely explain what they voted on in House Bill 7,” said Jan Moller of Invest in Louisiana. “They can explain some of it, but they can’t explain all of it.”
Moller’s organization opposed the tax package during the session with digital ads. But while he has concerns about some of the changes embedded in the amendment, such as spending limitations and the constitutional cap on the income tax, he doesn’t know yet if Invest in Louisiana will actively oppose its passage.
“We do intend to try to explain it as well as we can,” Moller said.
At the other end of the political spectrum, Louisiana Association of Business and Industry CEO Will Green said LABI was generally pleased with the results of the session. As the election gets closer, he will go to his board to see if they want to take a position.
The Pelican Institute for Public Policy plans to be actively involved in support of the amendment, CEO Daniel Erspamer said.
“My guess is the hard push starts after the first of the year,” he said. “I suspect those conversations are beginning now.”
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