Jim Bradshaw: At least the heat keeps hurricanes away

During July the U.S. sweltered through the warmest month ever recorded since we began tracking temperatures in 1895, and, turn up the AC, August has the potential to be even hotter, at least in these parts.
The average temperature for the U.S. mainland was 76.9 degrees in July, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administratio
That’s about 3 degrees above the average for the 20th century and broke the old record set in July 1936 by about a tenth of a degree.
Precise data for all of south Louisiana isn’t available but records I keep for my home in Washington rank this July only behind the scorcher of 2023, when records tumbled almost daily across the area.
NOAA predicts that the South will continue to see higher than average temperatures in August and the Climate Prediction Center says we will be hotter than usual during August, September and October, with each month seeing just enough rainfall to keep things sticky.
It’s no surprise that we can expect a hot August. Its heat, humidity, and lack of cooling breezes make it our most stressful month of the year.
That’s because the temperatures are often as warm as the body’s temperature, or warmer.
That means that when we work or play outside, we can’t depend on the air around us to cool us off.
We have to rely on the body’s ability to cool itself, mostly with perspiration, and high humidity makes that harder.
Health experts say that the safest temperature range to be outdoors for any length of time is from 77 degrees to 88 degrees.
That’s just about the range of August nights here.
You can count on one hand the days over the last several decades when temperatures in the daytime stayed that low.
The best way to get a handle on heat stress is by keeping track of the heat index, which combines temperature and humidity to show how hot it feels to us.
With just 60% humidity an actual temperature of 90 degrees will feel like 100, and it gets worse quickly as either number climbs.
The average humidity in Louisiana is around 79%, making it one of the most humid states in the nation.
In summer, it can reach 90% or more to make us even more miserable.
On most days in July and August the index reaches at least 95 here, which NOAA defines as “extreme heat.” It issues a heat advisory for dangerous conditions when the actual temperature is 103 degrees or when the heat index reaches 108. That happens here more often than we like.
If there is any bit of good news hidden here, it is that our hot days are usually created when a high pressure system is sitting on top of us, and high pressure pushes hurricanes away.
That’s comforting, sort of, because August is the month when we are most likely to see a hurricane in the Gulf.
They have hit Louisiana in practically every month of the year, but on average an old sailor’s adage is just about right in predicting when they are most likely to appear: “June too soon. July stand by. August look out you must. September remember. October all over.”
Sept. 10 is the historical peak of the hurricane season.
The two weeks before and the two weeks after Sept. 10 are the most likely to see hurricane development. In an average season, the first four pop up between Aug. 14 and Sept. 22.
Right on cue, the tropics seem to be getting more active this month, but NOAA’s latest prediction still calls for a below normal season with seven to 13 named storms, including the two that have already cropped up on the western fringe of the Gulf without doing much harm.
The forecast for the rest of the year calls for two to six storms to develop into hurricanes, two of them potentially major storms.
We have to remember that the predictions aren’t always right, and that hurricanes don’t always check the calendar.
We can’t forget the incredible storm season of 2005, when Hurricane Zeta formed on Dec. 30 and lasted until the start of the Carnival season on Jan. 6.
But, still, I’ll take the optimistic outlook and might even quit cussing the high pressure and the heat it brings.
You can contact Jim Bradshaw at jimbradshaw4321@gmail.com or P.O. Box 1121, Washington LA 70589.