UPDATED WITH 2 P.M. INFO: Tropical disturbance could bring rain to Gulf Coast

From Roger Erickson, National Weather Service at Lake Charles:

A weak surface trough over portions of the western Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity.
The disturbance is forecast to move northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, then moved northward or northeastward over the western or central Gulf of Mexico Monday and Tuesday. Unfavorable upper-level winds are expected to limit development through Monday, but environmental conditions could become marginally favorable for some gradual development on Tuesday or Wednesday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Central
America through Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.