Cristobal rain, surge forecasts lowered slightly; Sunday landfall likely east of Morgan City

The latest National Weather Service update has lower forecasts for rain and storm surge from Tropical Storm Cristobal. But the storm remains a potential flooding and wind damage threat.

Cristobal is still moving quickly to the north, said meteorologist Roger Erickson at 4 p.m. "It will make landfall late Sunday afternoon or evening, likely east of Morgan City," Erikson said.

Storm surge of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is expected after midnight Sunday night into Monday and Tuesday, mainly in Iberia and St. Mary parishes. Earlier forecasts had predicted a surge of 2 to 4 feet.

The Atchafalaya River at Morgan City, which was just above the 6-foot flood stage Saturday afternoon, is expected to begin rising Sunday night and reach 9 feet by Monday night before dropping quickly again to below 7 feet by 1 p.m. Monday. The earlier forecast had been for a crest of 9.5 feet.

The heaviest rainfall is forecast to be over south central Louisiana with 2-6 inches, with locally higher amounts Sunday and Monday.

Wind gusts will be tropical storm force in parts of south central Louisiana. Expect scattered power outages Sunday and Monday, Erikson said. An isolated tornado is also possible.

Here are some breakdown numbers:

Rainfall: southeast Texas less than 1 inch, southwest Louisiana 1-2 inches, central Louisiana 1-3 inches, south central Louisiana 2-6 inches..

Storm Surge: 1-3 ft AGL in lower parts of Vermilion, Iberia, lower St. Martin and St. Mary parishes.

Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities: southeast Texas 5-10%, southwest Louisiana 5-30%, central Louisiana 10-50%, south central Louisiana 40-80%.

A tropical storm warning is in effect from Intracoastal City to the Okaloosa-Walton country line in the Florida panhandle.

A storm surge watch is in effect from Morgan City to the mouth of the Mississippi River.