UPDATED: System becomes Tropical Storm Cristobal; expected to move into Gulf

UPDATE FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER:

Observations from the Hurricane Hunters around midday indicated
winds to tropical storm force over the southwestern quadrant, so the
cyclone was named. Since that time, scatterometer data suggested
that the wind field has become a little more symmetrical. The
current intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, which is a
little above the subjective Dvorak estimates. Some strengthening
could occur overnight since the cyclone is in a conducive
atmospheric and oceanic environment. However, it now seems likely
that the system will make landfall over eastern Mexico on Wednesday
which should cause weakening. Assuming that the center emerges over
the Gulf of Mexico later in the week, some re-intensification is
forecast. However, stronger shear over the northern Gulf should
limit the increase in strength. The official intensity forecast is
close to the latest LGEM guidance.

Satellite and radar imagery from Mexico indicate that the cyclone
is moving slowly southward, or around 170/3 kt. The system appears
to be rotating within a larger cyclonic gyre centered over eastern
Mexico. The global models show that Cristobal will be trapped
between two high pressure areas and have little overall movement for
the next few days. However, the slow, cyclonically looping
movement of the cyclone should take the center over eastern Mexico
on Wednesday and Thursday. Later in the week, increasing southerly
flow should steer the system northward over the Gulf of Mexico and
near the northern Gulf coast by the weekend. The official track
forecast lies near the latest dynamical model consensus, and is
roughly in the middle of the track guidance suite. Given the spread
in this guidance, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in
the NHC forecast at days 4-5.
Staff Report
A stormy rest of the week is in store for the Tri-City area, according to the National Weather Service in Lake Charles. And before the hurricane season is a week old, local people will be watching the Gulf for the possible approach of tropical weather.
The local forecast is for a 50-60% chance of storms each day into Friday. What happens after that depends on where Tropical Depression No. 3 decides to go.
The depression is currently in the Bay of Campeche and has already caused deadly flooding in Guatemala and El Salvador, the National Hurricane Center said.
“The depression is expected to bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides,” the center said.
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico, where a tropical storm warning is in effect.
The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the center said. But it’s too early to predict if and where the storm will affect the U.S. Gulf Coast.
“Hazards, if any, for Sunday and Monday [for the Morgan City area] will depend on the eventual track and strength of Tropical Depression number 3,” according to the National Weather Service in Lake Charles.
“Residents should monitor forecasts and advisories from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service through the upcoming week for this system.”
If the system develops tropical storm-force winds of at least 39 mph, it will be called Cristobal.