'Unsurvivable' storm surge, winds headed for Cameron; St. Mary likely to see coastal flooding

State officials and a meteorologist are using words like "unsurvivable" and "devastating" to describe Hurricane Laura's potential impact on southwest Louisiana as it nears an overnight landfall in or near Cameron Parish as a Category 4 storm.

St. Mary Parish could see coastal flooding as Laura heads in. St. Mary will probably see winds at or near tropical storm strength, or 39-74 mph. Five to 10 inches of rain are expected over a wide area of the Louisiana coast, with 15 inches in isolated spots.

The storm surge is expected to push the Atchafalaya at Morgan City from the 3.84 feet reported at 11 a.m. Wednesday to the 7-foot moderate flood stage overnight.

Just before noon, the National Weather Service reported no precipitation since 1 a.m. at Harry P. Williams Memorial Airport near Patterson. But just before noon Wednesday, east wind of 25 mph and gusts up to 32 mph were reported.

Voluntary evacuations are in effect in St. Mary south of the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway and in lower St. Martin Parish.

The impacts farther west will be far more dire, according to information from Gov. John Bel Edwards' press conference at 11:30 a.m. Wednesday.

Laura is now expected to come ashore about 1 a.m. Thursday in or near low-lying Cameron Parish with sustained winds of 145 mph and gusts up to 170 mph, said Benjamin Schott, meteorologist in chief at the National Weather Service New Orleans Office.

"I think the damage from this will be, unfortunately, devastating at a level that a lot of people won't be able to recognize the area they live in if the winds are realized that are in this forecast," Schott said.

The storm surge near Laura's center could reach 18 to 20 feet, a "wall of water two stories high" that could put most of Cameron underwater.

"The word 'unsurvivable' is not one we like to use, and I've never used it," Schott said.

The people at the press conference have stopped comparing Laura to 2005's Hurricane Rita, which came ashore in the same area as a Category 3 storm. They're starting to compare Laura to Hurricane Audrey. That June 1957 storm flooded nearly all of Cameron and may have killed as many as 500 people.

"There is no way to be certain that if you lived through Rita and you're hunkering down in an area where there is an evacuation [order], you will survive," Schott said.

The state government has received a Federal Emergency Management Agency OK to place evacuees from Cameron and Calcasieu into hotels and motels as an alternative to congregate shelters that could pose a COVID-19 risks,Edwards said. About 800 rooms were occupied Tuesday night, and Edwards anticipate that all 2,000 will be in use by Wednesday night.

The large buses that the state uses to transport evacuees can't run when winds exceed 45 mph. Officials anticipated that the buses would be out of action by early in the afternoon. Individual vehicles have another two or three hours to travel safely, they said.

But Schott and the governor said it's important to make the decision to evacuate now and get on the road before the storm's effects make travel dangerous.

Edwards said that the entire Louisiana National Guard is being activated with 3,000 troops already at work and more on the way.

In addition to their work at food banks and helping with the COVID-19 response, they'll be involved with search and rescue efforts, Edwards said. The Guard has about 222 high-water vehicles, 65 boats and aircraft that can be used in rescue efforts, he said.

Commercial vehicles are being diverted away from I-10 north to I-20 because I-10 is expected to have standing water in portions of the highway in Calcasieu, Jefferson Davis and possibly Acadia parishes.