Tropical storm season begins with mixed forecast

Staff Report
The hurricane season that officially began Saturday will have slightly more storms than average, or slightly less. It depends on which of four widely circulated predictions you believe.
South Louisiana, already forced to deal with flooding and the potential for more flooding from the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers, will be pulling for the below-average prediction.
Those predictions come from an academic source and a government source.
The Colorado State Meteorological Project, the legacy of the late William Gray, is predicting a slightly above average of named storms, 13, but a slightly below average number of hurricanes, five.
The 30-year average is 12.1 named storms and 6.4 hurricanes.
Two of the hurricanes will become major, Colorado State said. A major hurricane is one that achieves Category 3 strength winds of at least 111 mph.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has more wiggle room, but it’s mostly on the low side when it comes to the number of storms. It’s less encouraging when it comes to the number of hurricanes.
NOAA is looking for nine to 15 named storms, including four to eight that become hurricanes and two to four that reach Category 3 strength.
Both Colorado State and NOAA say an El Niño system is currently active. El Niño, a complicated weather pattern starting with warmer than average temperatures in the south Pacific, tends to keep the number of hurricanes down.
“At the same time, however,” NOAA said, “warmer water temperatures and a stronger than average West African monsoon are expected to increase the odds of hurricanes.”
Two commercial services predict the season will be slightly busier than average.
The Weather Channel’s weather.com is calling for a total of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Acccuweather predicts 12 to 14 named storms, five to seven hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes.
Last year was the third straight season with above-average activity: 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
The first major storm was Florence, which came ashore in North Carolina on Sept. 14 and killed 54 people in the United States.
The second was Michael. It made landfall near Panama City in the Florida Panhandle. Michael killed 59 people in four states.
This year was the fourth straight with a named storm before the June 1 season starting date. Tropical Storm Andrea dissipated May 21 near Bermuda.
The hurricane season is considered to end Nov. 30.