Storm watch issued for central Gulf coast just east of Morgan City

See NWS Lake Charles discussion

The Latest on tropical weather (all times local):

8 p.m.
The National Hurricane Center says tropical storm conditions and heavy rainfall are possible over parts of the central U.S. Gulf Coast in coming days.
The Miami-based center said Sunday afternoon that a storm system is brewing about 240 miles (385 kilometers) east-southeast of Marathon in the Florida Keys. Maximum sustained winds of the unnamed system have been clocked at 30 mph (45 kph) and the system is moving west-northwest at 15 mph (24 kph).
A tropical storm watch has been issued for portions of the central Gulf Coast from the Alabama-Florida line westward to nearly Morgan City, Louisiana.
The center says the system will gradually strengthen and is expected to become a tropical depression sometime Monday and a tropical storm by Monday evening. It says the system could dump 2 to 4 inches (5-10 centimeters) of rain over parts of the Bahamas, the Florida Keys and South Florida through early Tuesday.
Elsewhere, forecasters say, storm are expected to develop over the nation's midsection in coming days that could dump from 3 to 7 inches (8-17 centimeters) of rain in some areas.
5 p.m.
Tropical Storm Florence poses no threat to land as it continues to churn across the open Atlantic with no change in strength.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami says the tropical storm is centered about 700 miles (1,125 kilometers) west-northwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands. Its moving west-northwest at about 17 mph (28 kph).
At 5 p.m. EDT Sunday, Florence had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (85kph) with higher gusts.
Forecasters say little change in strength is expected in coming days and no coastal watches or warnings are in effect.
11:15 a.m.
Tropical Storm Florence is moving quickly west and has strengthened slightly but still poses no threat to land.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami said in its 11 a.m. EDT advisory Sunday that the storm
The storm is located about 605 miles (970 kilometers) west-northwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands off the coast of western Africa. The storm was moving west-northwest at 18 mph (30 kph).
Maximum sustained winds have decreased slightly to near 50 mph (85 kph) with higher gusts. The hurricane center said little change in strength is forecast over the next few days.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami says a new tropical storm in the eastern Atlantic will strengthen throughout the weekend but does not currently threaten land.
The center said in its 11 a.m. EDT advisory that Tropical Storm Florence was located about 225 miles (365 kilometers) west of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands off the west coast of Africa.
No coastal watches or warnings are in effect.
Florence is moving west-northwest at 14 mph (22 kph). The storm's maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 kph) were expected to strengthen in the next 48 hours.


Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018

There has been little change in the organization of the disturbance
since the previous advisory. Satellite imagery shows that some new
convective bands have formed to the northeast of the trough axis,
but there is still no evidence of a closed surface circulation at
this time. The initial intensity remains 25 kt, which is in
agreement with the earlier ASCAT data and recent surface
observations. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance on Monday to give a better
assessment of the structure and intensity of the system.

The disturbance will be moving over warm waters and within
an area of generally low vertical wind shear. These conditions
should allow gradual development of the system over the next day or
so. The global model guidance indicates that the surface trough
will sharpen and that a closed surface circulation is likely to
develop in association with the system over the Gulf of Mexico
within the next 24-36 hours. Once this occurs, the system is
expected to continue to gradually strengthen until it reaches the
north-central Gulf coast Tuesday night or early Wednesday. The
intensity guidance did not change much this cycle and neither has
the latest official forecast.

The initial motion estimate is 300/13 kt. The disturbance is
forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward around the
southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge that is centered over the
Mid-Atlantic states. On this heading, the disturbance is
expected to pass over the Florida Keys or the southern Florida
peninsula tomorrow morning, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico
Monday night before approaching the north-central Gulf coast late
Tuesday or Tuesday night. The dynamical model guidance is in good
agreement on this scenario, however, since the system is still in
the pre-genesis phase future changes regarding the exact track
and timing of the onset of hazards are possible.

Key Messages:

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will bring heavy rainfall and
gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the
Florida Keys tonight and Monday, and interests in those areas should
monitor the progress of this system.

2. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the
central Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are possible in
those areas Tuesday night and Wednesday. Heavy rainfall from this
system will affect portions of the central Gulf Coast later this
week, including areas that are currently receiving heavy rainfall
from a different weather system. Interests in these areas should
monitor products from their local National Weather Service office.

3. Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for potential
tropical cyclones is generally larger than that for tropical
cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours.


12H 03/1200Z 24.5N 80.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 25.9N 83.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 27.5N 86.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 28.8N 88.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 31.7N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/0000Z 33.2N 94.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 08/0000Z 34.2N 95.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

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