Risk of flood passes as hurricane season begins

St. Mary’s first brush with widespread flooding this year has passed, giving local governments a chance to test their procedures without real danger.
The Atchafalaya River at Morgan City was at 5.39 feet at 5 a.m. Tuesday, continuing a slow decline.
The river had been predicted to top 7 feet, considered the moderate flood stage, around Memorial Day. But the river didn’t quite make that level and began falling slowly.
The river is expected to stay near 5 feet for the next couple of weeks.
The 7 foot prediction triggered flood control responses, including the closure of flood gates in Morgan City and Berwick and the closure of the massive Bayou Chene Flood Control Structure.
The $80 million structure, still only three years old, received generally good reviews on social media for its ability to protect Stephensville, the Lake Palourde area and elsewhere from back-flooding when the Atchafalaya runs high.
The St. Mary Levee District, which operates the structure, announced that the bayou was open for commercial traffic again Thursday.
As the water recedes, eyes turn toward the hurricane season that officially began Sunday.
The National Hurricane Center’s prediction for tropical activity generally agrees with an earlier forecast by meteorologists at Colorado State University. The center forecasts higher than usual activity, with 13-19 named storms, 6-10 of which will be hurricanes and 3-5 of which will be major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or more.
The center is expecting a South Pacific weather pattern known as ENSO neutral, which generally means less shearing wind to hamper hurricane development in the Atlantic-Caribbean-Gulf zone.
Warmer waters and heavier than usual rain in West Africa are also expected to increase tropical weather activity this summer and fall.