No hurricanes yet as peak time approaches
Approaching the peak of hurricane season, the Atlantic has yet to see a hurricane develop though forecasters predict 2017 will have a total of eight hurricanes.
As of July 5, researchers Philip J. Klotzbach and Michael M. Bell at Colorado State University increased their original hurricane season forecast and believed that 2017 will have above-average activity based on information obtained through June. The activity was expected to be above the median 1981-2010 season, Colorado State researchers stated.
The researchers will release their final 2017 Atlantic hurricane season forecast Aug. 4.
Hurricane season began June 1 and ends Nov. 30. The peak of the season is August through October.
Klotzbach and Bell estimated in their revised predictions that 2017 would have eight hurricanes, 12 named storms and three major hurricanes.
The odds of a significant El Niño in 2017 have continued to diminish, and most of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic remains unusually warm, they stated.
El Niño, which occurs when Pacific Ocean temperatures are above normal, suppresses the likelihood of hurricane development in the Atlantic.
With the increase in our forecast, the probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean has increased as well, they said.
“This revised prediction is a considerable increase from our early seasonal forecasts issued in April and June,” Klotzbach and Bell said in their report. “There remains considerable uncertainty with this forecast.”
The Gulf Coast region has already seen one tropical storm this season that brought with it substantial amounts of rainfall.
Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall on the northern Gulf Coast between Cameron, Louisiana, and Port Arthur, Texas, June 22 and brought about 10.5 inches of rain to the New Orleans area and about 4.6 inches of rain near Baton Rouge, according to weather.com. St. Mary Parish only got a fraction of that amount of rainfall, though.
Cindy had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph at landfall and gusts of 45 to 55 mph were clocked along the Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi coasts June 20-22, weather.com stated.
Three other tropical storms have also formed in the Atlantic this season, including Arlene, which formed in April but never made landfall. Tropical Storm Bret made landfall June 20 along the coast of Trinidad and Tobago, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The fourth tropical storm of 2017, Don, formed July 17, about 500 miles east of Barbados, weather.com stated. Just 36 hours after first being named, Tropical Storm Don degenerated into a tropical wave just before midnight July 18.