Hurricane prediction: Buckle up

The first major tropical weather forecasts of the season are out. They’re using words like “very active,” “frenzy” and “turbulent.”
AccuWeather, a private weather forecasting service, is predicting 20-25 named storms in the Atlantic Basin season, which is considered to begin June 1. Eight to 12 of the storms will be hurricanes, AccuWeather says, and four to seven will be major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or more.
Four to six of the hurricanes will have a direct impact on the United States, according to the forecast.
All those numbers represent more tropical activity than the 30-year average.
Another nongovernmental source, the Weather Channel, says predictions for a lively hurricane season result from three factors:
—Ocean water temperatures. Tropical weather feeds, and intensifies, as it moves over warm water, picking up energy.
The western Atlantic and all of the Caribbean is already showing surface temperatures of 80 degrees, about eight weeks ahead of schedule.
—Adios, El Niño. Last year’s El Niño weather pattern, which fluctuates with surface temperatures in the southern Pacific, was short-lived. It’s already fading away, taking with it the typical shearing winds that tend to discourage hurricane development.
Even worse, weather watchers say El Niño’s flip side, La Niña, may form by the end of the season. La Niña patterns create conditions favorable for hurricane development.
—We’ve got a history. The Weather Channel says historical and climate models point to a more active season.
“All signs continue to point toward the upcoming season being worse than the last, with the potential for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season to rank as one of the most active in history,” AccuWeather said.
AccuWeather’s 30-year calculations say we would expect 14 named storms, seven hurricanes (sustained winds of at least 74 mph) and three major hurricanes.
Last year, even with El Nińo, the season exceeded the average in the number of named storms with 20. The season equaled the averages in hurricanes and major hurricanes.
For St. Mary’s portion of the Gulf Coast, 2023 was quiet, the second straight year in which this region didn’t have so much as a close call.
The quiet period followed the near miss from Hurricane Ida and its 150 mph winds in 2021. Ida would cause an estimated $65 billion in damage in the South, Midwest and East Coast.
And Ida followed the major hurricanes of 2020, a record-breaking year for tropical weather in Louisiana. The storms included Laura, which struck near Lake Charles and equaled Ida’s 150 mph winds.
Among other widely watched forecasts, the Colorado State predictions are due this week. The National Hurricane Center is expected in May.