Hurricane forecast: below average season

The first prediction for the 2026 hurricane season foresees slightly below normal activity as a storm-favoring La Niña weather pattern gives way to an El Niño regime.
This year’s predictions follow a 2025 forecast for an above-average number of storms, followed by the calmest Gulf Coast hurricane season in decades.
The widely watched Colorado State University forecast for 2026 anticipates:
•13 named storms, (compared to an average of 14.4).
•55 days with named storms (69.4 on average).
•Six hurricanes (7.2 average).
•20 hurricane days (27 average).
•Two major hurricanes of at least Category 3 strength (3.2 average).
•Five major hurricane days (7.4 average).
“We anticipate that the 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have somewhat below normal activity,” says the Colorado State report. “Current weak La Niña conditions are likely to transition to El Niño in the next few months, with the potential for a moderate/strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season.”
AccuWeather described those weather patterns this way:
“El Niño occurs when ocean temperatures near the equator of the eastern Pacific Ocean warm to at least 0.5 of a degree Celsius (0.9 of a degree Fahrenheit) above the long-term averages. The warmer the water in this area of the Pacific, the greater the effect it will have on tropical activity worldwide.
“Typically, El Niño creates stronger upper-level winds (wind shear) across the Atlantic, making it harder for tropical storms to take shape. With El Niño forecast to develop and strengthen throughout the summer and autumn, it is likely to translate to fewer storms during the second half of the hurricane season compared to the first half.”
Even with the prospect of less than the average number of storms, preparedness is important, cautions AccuWeather’s Alex DiSilva.
“It’s very important that everybody from South Texas all the way to Maine prepares equally for each and every hurricane season, regardless of what the official forecast is.
“Even if it’s expected to be a slightly below average hurricane season, we can still see major hits across the United States.”
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Monday, June 1.