Estimates differ on Berwick's population

The U.S. Census Bureau says Berwick’s population has declined since the 2010 Census.
Not so fast, says Berwick.
Mayor Duval Arthur passed along a June 4 letter from Louisiana Treasurer John M. Schroder indicating Berwick’s estimated population on July 1, 2018, was actually greater than the 4,946 reported in the 2010 Census. That estimate would put Berwick well above the 5,000 needed to move from town to city status under state law.
The number makes a difference. Population is the basis for determinations about grants and revenue sharing programs, and the 2020 Census figures will be used as the basis for redrawing the maps of political districts.
Pride is part of the equation, too: “Moving from a town to a city just means you have more people,” Arthur said.
The Daily Review reported Monday that the Census Bureau’s annual estimates showed a parishwide decline in population 2010-18. The estimated population was 49,774, a decline of nearly 9 percent since 2010. (A typo in the original story misstated the number.) The 2018 estimates were down across the board for the parish’s incorporated places.
Berwick’s population dropped from 4,946 in 2010 to 4,471 in 2018, according to the Census Bureau.
But the Schroder letter said Berwick’s estimated 2018 population was 5,158, which would be an increase of 212 since 2010.
The treasurer’s letter cites estimates from the LSU AgCenter’s Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness and Dean Troy Blanchard of the LSU Department of Sociology.
In an email, Blanchard said the difference in the two estimates comes from a difference in methods.
The Census Bureau relies on a survey of building permits performed annually, Blanchard wrote. Not all municipalities participate in the survey.
“We generate our estimates from a survey we circulate to the 304 municipalities across the state,” Blanchard wrote. “We request data from mayors on local utility connections (electricity, water, sewer), building permit data, demolitions, annexations, etc. to estimate the population of a municipality.
“Both methods represent valid approaches to generating population estimates, but can result in different estimates. In some municipalities, the two programs yield similar results. In other municipalities, the two estimates differ.”
The most accurate count will come from the 2020 Census, Blanchard said.