Colorado State revises forecast, expects above-average hurricane season

Gov. John Bel Edwards was in Franklin on Friday for a happy occasion, the ribbon-cutting for the Bayou Bend Health System's Wellness Center. But he ended his remarks with a warning: Be prepared for hurricanes.

"You all, actually, over the last several years have dodged a number of close calls because they go to Lake Charles, they go to the southeast," Edwards said. "If there's an area that's due ..."

A low rumble moved through the crowd assembled for the ribbon-cutting .

"That's right," the governor said.

His warning came not only because we're nearly six weeks into hurricane season, but because one of the leading tropical forecasters has upped its forecast for 2023.

Colorado State University's Weather & Climate Research program had issued a preseason forecast for a slightly below-average number of storms in 2023.

On Thursday, Colorado State issued a revised forecast with above-average activity for the Atlantic Basin, including the Gulf:

--18 named storms (30-year average, 14.4).

--90 named storm days (average, 69.4).

--Nine hurricanes (average, 7.2).

--35 hurricane days (average, 27).

--Four major hurricanes (average, 3.2).

A major hurricane has Category 3 strength or more. A Category 3 hurricane has sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

The so-so or slightly below-average forecasts from Colorado State and the National Hurricane Center were based in part on the emergence of an El Niño weather pattern.

El Niño is a cyclical period of warm water in the souther Pacific that tends to generate winds that inhibit hurricane development.

But "the extreme anomalous warmth in the Atlantic may counteract some of the typical El Niño-driven wind shear," Colorado State's forecast said.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says nearly half the world's large bodies of water are experiencing unusually high surface temperatures. In the Atlantic and
Gulf, that means more energy to sustain and intensify tropical weather that could affect Louisiana.

And that's another reason to be prepared, the governor said in Franklin.

"Please understand," Edwards said at Friday's ribbon-cutting, "that unlike years ago, rapid intensification happens. Sometimes a storm is at your doorstep, and it's not even a hurricane, and within 48 hours it's making landfall as a major hurricane."

Preparation for hurricanes continues to evolve.

In St. Mary Parish, emergency officials learned during recent hurricane outages that people undergoing oxygen therapy can have a tough time in the aftermath. Some fire stations were able to recharge oxygen systems.

Hurricane Ida caused only minor damage in St. Mary in 2021, but Ida created numberless headaches for first responders when cell service and the network devoted to emergency use went down.

Chris Samber, who oversees AT&T's network, told The Verge tech website that the carrier has instituted triple redundancy for lines into mission critical offices, including those that handle the first responder system.

“We had two routes into the main switching center during Hurricane Ida, and we learned that we need three,” Samber said.

He also said the use of portable cell towers, which some first responders had asked for to make it easier to find their way to people in need, is "useful."