4 P.M. UPDATE: Marco, Laura tracks bend farther west
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HURRICANE MARCO
BULLETIN
Hurricane Marco Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020
...MARCO EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST
MONDAY...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 87.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Cameron to
west of Morgan City, Louisiana.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for....
* Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Morgan City Louisiana
* Ocean Springs Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
* Cameron to west of Morgan City
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marco was located
near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 87.8 West. Marco is moving
toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), a turn to the
northwest is expected later tonight followed by a turn to the
west-northwest by Monday night. On the forecast track, Marco will
be near the Louisiana coast Monday afternoon, and move near or
over the coast through Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change is strength is expected over the next 24 h.
Gradual weakening is expected thereafter, and Marco could become a
remnant low by Tuesday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City LA...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Intracoastal City...1-3 ft
Ocean Springs MS to the AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by midday Monday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area on Monday, and hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch areas late
Monday.
RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches across
the Central U.S. Gulf coast through Tuesday.
This rainfall may result in scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding along the Central U.S. Gulf Coast.
SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of
the northern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible early Monday morning
near the southeast Louisiana coast. Isolated tornadoes are possible
across southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama,
and the Florida Panhandle Monday and Monday night.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Latto
TROPICAL STORM LAURA
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 16...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020
Corrected rainfall statement
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
LAURA JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 75.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.
The Tropical Storm Watch for the the Florida Keys north of Craig
Key and for Florida Bay has been discontinued.
The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued all
Tropical Storm Warnings for the Dominican Republic.
The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands, and for the southeastern
Bahamas except for Inagua and the Ragged Islands. The Tropical
Storm Watch for the central Bahamas and Andros Island has been
discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Entire coast of the Haiti
* Inagua and the Ragged Islands in southeastern Bahamas
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 75.2 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is foreast by
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move
near or over southern coast Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura is
expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico
Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast while Laura moves near
the southern coast of Cuba tonight. However, strengthening is
forecast after the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is
forecast to become a hurricane late Tuesday or Tuesday night.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft
data is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations through Tuesday:
Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with
maximum amounts of 12 inches.
Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, maximum amounts of 6 inches.
Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas: 1 to 2 inches.
Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for
mudslides.
By later Wednesday into Friday Laura is expected to produce rainfall
of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across
portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the Texas and
Louisiana border north into portions of the lower Mississippi
Valley. This rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Haiti through this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Cuba
later tonight through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac on Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within portions of the watch area in the
Florida Keys Monday.
SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern
Bahamas, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.