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Jim Bradshaw: Alberto gets an asterisk

The year’s first named storm boiled up in the Gulf of Mexico on May 25, a week before the official start of the 2018 hurricane season. It wasn’t that much as storms go, but it was still worth at least an asterisk in the record books.
Named Atlantic storms in late May are not that uncommon, and that’s not what caught the researchers’ attention. It was that this storm formed in the Gulf of Mexico. That hardly ever happens this early in the year.
The most recent May storm in the Gulf was a subtropical storm in 1976, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach. He said only four named storms have formed in the Gulf in May since records began in 1851.
Also for the record books, this makes four years in a row that there has been a named storm before June 1, something that has happened only once before in the century-plus that hurricane records have been kept.
The last time there were early storms in four consecutive years was 1951 through 1954. Two came ashore as minor hurricanes in 1951, one of them in January and the other in May. In 1952, a February storm hit Florida with 70 mph winds. A storm that formed May 25, 1953, brought tropical storm winds to Cuba and Florida, and a late May tropical storm came ashore in North Carolina in 1954.
In recent years, Tropical Storm Ana dampened the southeastern United States in early May 2015. In 2016, Alex reached hurricane strength by the time it curled into Bermuda in January and Tropical Storm Bonnie blew across the U.S. Atlantic coast in late May. Last year, 2017, Arlene formed in April but blew itself out in the middle of the ocean
Experts — and the statistics — say we shouldn’t worry too much about this trend (if it is one). An early storm does not necessarily mean an extraordinarily active hurricane season. The National Hurricane Center predicts 10 to 16 named storms this year, five to nine of which may become hurricanes, and one to four of them major storms. That’s about average for recent years. The Colorado State experts say there is a 38 per cent chance that at least one of these storms will land on the Gulf Coast between Texas and Florida.
We can hope that this early squall will satisfy that prediction and drop the odds for another visitor from the Gulf this summer, but I wouldn’t bet against another storm later in the year.
And, at least right now, some folks would welcome a good soaker.
Everybody is careful about what they pray for at this time of year in south Louisiana, but farmers and gardeners across the area were hoping for just a little bit of rain from this early storm.
Late in May county agents across the area were reporting “drought stressed crops” (Vincent Deshotel, St. Landry Parish), “extremely dry conditions” (Jeremy Hebert, Acadia Parish), “sugar cane and soybeans showing … stress,” (Blair Hebert, Iberia Parish).
Jimmy Flanagan in St. Mary Parish summed it up: “We need a rain bad!”
In most instances, the farmers got only what they asked for, just a little bit of rain, not nearly enough to turn around what has been one of the hottest and driest Mays on record in much of the area.
Drought monitors at the U.S. Department of Agriculture currently list south Louisiana as “abnormally dry” and in need of rain, but not yet in a drought. But that could change quickly enough. Another federal agency, the Weather Prediction Center, says the three-month forecast is for a hot and dry summer across Acadiana.
Not so dry, of course, that we won’t complain about the humidity.
A collection of Jim Bradshaw’s columns, Cajuns and Other Characters, is now available from Pelican Publishing. You can contact him at jimbradshaw4321@gmail.com or P.O. Box 1121, Washington LA 70589.

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