Fight over state revenue estimate drags on

BATON ROUGE (AP) — For three consecutive months, Louisiana’s forecasting panel has debated economists’ suggestions to boost income estimates, making millions more available for spending. Each time, the meeting ends in a stalemate, with no changes made.
The scene replayed Thursday in the latest Revenue Estimating Conference meeting at the Louisiana Capitol, continuing the latest clash between Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards’ administration and House Republican leaders.
Administration efforts to pressure House Speaker Taylor Barras to raise the forecast ended in another failed vote. Barras blocked the changes, saying questions remain about the impact of the federal tax changes, declines in oil prices and the state economy.
“I just feel that there is a good bit of uncertainty,” the New Iberia banker said.
The Edwards administration, Republican Senate President John Alario and LSU economist Jim Richardson said state economists have made a reasonable case for rewriting the numbers, based on six months of tax collection data in the current budget year and economic modeling.
“We exist to create an analysis-based, fact-driven estimate,” said Commissioner of Administration Jay Dardenne, the governor’s chief budget adviser. “This is the most current information available to us.”
The Revenue Estimating Conference has four members: Dardenne, Alario, Barras and Richardson. All four members must agree to change the state’s forecast, and for three months of meetings, Barras — or someone sitting in for him — has opposed the move.
“The creation of the Revenue Estimating Conference was a major reform policy,” Dardenne said. “The exercise we’re going through right now is undermining that reform.”
The stalemate has political implications this election year, threatening Edwards’ plans to include a teacher pay raise in his budget proposal to be released next month.
Already, Barras’ blocking of the forecast increase stalled a $43 million list of spending plans, mainly on corrections, juvenile justice and local sheriffs.
Economists for both the Legislature and the administration said tax collections are coming in better than expected, and they’ve described their proposed changes as cautious.
They recommended the Revenue Estimating Conference bump up the forecast for the budget year that ends June 30 by more than $125 million and the next budget year by at least $67 million.
“I think the numbers are conservative and doable,” said Greg Albrecht, the Legislature’s chief economist.
Barras said while he trusts the economists, “I’m just concerned about the timing.”
Dardenne suggested the House speaker was stalling the forecast changes so lawmakers in the House could add the teacher pay raise into their version of the budget and keep the governor from including it in his February proposal.
“We’re just playing a game right now,” Dardenne said. “It defies logic. It doesn’t defy politics; I understand that.”
Barras said he supports efforts to raise teacher pay. He added: “But setting up the expectation that we could pay for it is a little bit premature.”