John K. Flores: Deer season forecast

This past weekend Addalynn Dugas, an 8-year-old from Centerville, killed her first deer in the marsh. As the story goes, father and daughter got in the stand just before daylight. The morning was foggy, and the two hunters earnestly scanned a lane where they normally see deer.
Hunting deer in the fog just before sunrise can be a unique experience. Everything is dripping wet with dew and there generally isn’t the slightest breeze. It’s an enchantingly quiet time as water droplets fall on the broad fan-shaped palmetto and bull tongue leaves around you.
When Addalynn’s father, Ross Dugas, turned to talk to her he saw a buck maybe 15 yards away out of the stand’s window.
“He definitely sneaked up on us,” the older Dugas said. “We never heard him or anything.”
According to Addalynn the buck was on the move and walked out perfectly in front of the stand, only stopping when her father made a little grunt sound. That’s when the young hunter made a good shot using a Ruger Model 44 semi-auto rifle that she had been practicing with.
After the shot she says the deer ran into the tall grass where it expired.
Ross Dugas said, “We went opening weekend and we saw maybe four deer, but it was really windy, and they were all over 100 yards out. We wanted her to get a shot as close as we possibly could.”
“We felt anything under 50 yards would be great — maybe 70 yards if conditions were perfect,” Dugas continued. “He was 40 yards away and she had been practicing at that distance. In fact, we went shooting at the range the Monday before the opener.”
Addalynn’s father says his daughters’ emotions went from being a little bit nervous to really excited during the hunt and she is already talking about getting her next deer.
Now that the long deer hunting season is fully underway statewide, what can St. Mary Parish’s deer hunters expect this year?
Johnathan Bordelon, Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries Deer Program Manager, says deer harvest numbers have been steadily increasing across the state.
Bordelon said, “Deer harvest in Louisiana has been trending upwards in recent years. A new 10 year high in reported harvest has been measured in each of the past 3 seasons. The 2023-24 harvest was the highest reported deer harvest since mandatory tagging began in 2008.”
Bordelon went on to say that the LDWF also tracks estimated harvest in addition to reported harvest through the Annual Hunter Harvest Survey. The annual survey dates back to 1970. The survey showed estimated harvest numbers were similar to the reported harvest numbers last season.
Most of St. Mary Parish’s deer hunting falls into LDWF Hunt Areas 7 and 9, with most of the parish in Area 7’s coastal marsh. Bordelon says Area 7’s deer harvest has also been trending upwards and its population is stable, where an increase in harvest should continue.
One point that the State’s top deer biologist made concerning both Area 7 and 9 is these two regions were impacted with inland flooding from hurricane Francine.
Bordelon said, “Fawn survival is a concern where significant inland flooding is concerned. In the case of Area 7, the rut and subsequent fawning occurs early. Fawning begins as early as April in the area. The early fawning and fawn growth in advance of the late summer storms makes them better equipped for survival. Inland impacts to fawns in Area 9 should be minimal outside of the surge impacted areas.”
The thing about fawn mortality is it’s typically something not fully noticeable during the current season. It is the following season where recruitment of these younger deer impacts the overall herd numbers in specific areas. Bordelon said, “Deer Area 9 is the only deer area where an upward trend in reported harvest has not been measured. A more conservative antlerless season is in place for Deer Area 9. Limited either sex days have reduced harvest pressure on antlerless deer in the deer area. Due to recent storms and continued harvest trend, the conservative antlerless season structure will likely remain into the near future.”
Ross Dugas says his daughter has been helping him grind deer meat to make sausage and boudin since she was old enough to press the buttons on the grinder and vacuum sealer.
After the hunt, Addalynn, a Centerville Elementary student, said to her father, “Saturday must have been my lucky day. I got my first deer and made the Principal’s List.”
John Flores is the Morgan City Review’s outdoor writer. He can be contacted at gowiththeflo@cox.net.