Jim Bradshaw: 2020 hurricane season was worse than we thought

Just in time for what promises to be another busy season, the National Hurricane Center reports that last year’s summer that already will be long remembered was even worse than we thought. 
The center updated its data on Hurricane Zeta, the record-breaking fifth named storm to strike Louisiana in 2020. It was originally rated as a Category 2 storm, but has been upgraded to major Category 3 status.
That makes Zeta, which came ashore near Cocodrie on October 28, the latest major hurricane to strike the U.S. in a calendar year.
The old record was set in 1921 by a hurricane that landed at Tampa Bay on October 25. That also brought the number of major storms to hit the U.S. to seven, which tied 2020 with 2005 — another memorable year in Louisiana — for the most big storms in a single season.
All-in-all, 2020 turned out to be the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record.
There were 30 named storms, 13 of them hurricanes, seven major storms.
Twelve of the named storms hit the United States, breaking the record of nine set in 1916. 
Five came ashore in Louisiana, breaking the state record for the most strikes in a season.
The hurricane center experts do not expect 2021 to reach those numbers, but they do expect this to be the sixth above normal year in a row.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast calls for 13 to 20 named storms with sustained winds of at least 39 mph.
It says six to 10 of those are likely to become hurricanes, and three to five may become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). 
AccuWeather’s veteran storm watcher Dan Kottlowski forecasts 16 to 20 named storms, including seven to 10 hurricanes, three to five of at least Category 3 with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or more.
Forecaster Todd Crawford at The Weather Company calls for 19 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Colorado State University’s Philip Klotzbach expects 17 named storms, eight hurricanes, four of them major.
These predictions for another above normal season come even after the experts bumped up their definition of what “normal” is.
Until this year, “normal” was 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes in a season.
The “new normal” is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The scientists have also hedged their bets with the usual mumbo-jumbo about what La Niña may or may not do, how hot sea surface temperatures will become, wind shear, and so on, but tend to agree with Crawford that “we don’t expect anything close to what happened in 2020.”
That’s reassuring, but I am also reminded that last year the scientists didn’t expect anything close to what actually happened.
I’ll cast my lot with Klotzbach’s note that “coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them.”
A collection of Jim Bradshaw’s columns, "Cajuns and Other Characters," is now available from Pelican Publishing. You can contact him at jimbradshaw4321@gmail.com or P.O. Box 1121, Washington LA 70589.